Analyst: iPod sales 9.5m, Mac share gains

Apple is on track to sell 9.5 million iPods during its quarter ending in June, according to Piper Jaffray senior analyst Gene Munster. Despite NPD data suggesting such figures, the analyst is still projecting 10.5 million iPods shipped for the quarter ahead of Street consensus totaling 9.8 million units. The firm maintains an outperform rating on shares of Apple, and is heavily focused on WWDC as a potential driver for revenue in the remainder of 2007. Piper Jaffray holds a $140 price target on Apple shares.

Munster's estimate is based on an extrapolation of data from previous year's June quarters. In the third quarter of 2006, for instance, iPod shipments were broken down monthly as follows (on avg): April - 27 percent, May - 32 percent, and June - 41 percent. As such, the firm is using this trend to calculate a shipment assuming that numbers for 2007 will fluctuate similarly.

Piper Jaffray is also expecting the launch of new MacBook Pros and iMacs during the WWDC conference, which begins June 11th.

Regarding the iPhone, Munster says a material impact on the June quarter will not be apparent, but the product launch should have a significant effect on the September quarter. "The first full quarter of iPhone numbers will be reported with the Sep-07 earnings. Also, we expect Apple to launch new widescreen iPods with the iPhone's multi-touch technology at a price-point below the iPhone's $499 (likely $399). Apple may also update the shuffle for the holiday shopping season."

Munster is also looking for Mac market share gains in 2007. "We also expect further worldwide Mac market share gains toward 3.0 percent (up from 2.6 percent in calendar Q107). These gains should be driven by strong education and back-to-school sales in the quarter, and the industry trend toward laptops. In the US, according to IDC data Apple currently has a higher market share in the laptop category (4.8 percent) than in overall PC sales (3.7 percent)"

Touching on Leopard, the firm says: "We are expecting a full-featured demonstration of Leopard, including a demo of how Leopard will integrate Windows interoperability."

Filed under: Apple