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Analyst: Mac sales slow ahead of Leopard

updated 10:15 am EDT, Thu April 12, 2007

Mac sales slow, Leopard

Apple is due to report its March quarter results on April 25th, and is likely to reveal Mac sales toward the lower-end of expectations due to a pause ahead of Mac OS X Leopard's launch alongside anticipation for new 8-core Mac Pros, according to American Technology Research senior analyst Shaw Wu. Nevertheless, Wu says iPod sales appear better than expected and that Macs are poised to fly off the shelves after Apple launches Mac OS X Leopard. The analyst is modeling $5.12 billion in revenue, $0.63 in earnings-per-share, 1.4 million Macs, and 10.3 million iPods for the March quarter. American Technology Research maintained its 'buy' rating on Apple shares but raised its price target to $118 from $115 based on a 27x multiple on its calendar year 2008 earnings-per-share of $3.86, as well as $13.44 in net cash.

"We are reducing our near-term Mac unit assumptions but raising our overall estimates due to more favorable component pricing, better iPod sales, and resumed Mac growth," Wu wrote in a research note obtained by MacNN.

"Should Apple shares pull back at on short-term concerns, we advise investors to buy the stock," the analyst noted.

American Technology Research previously predicted revenue of $5.05 billion, $0.60 in earnings-per-share, 1.43 million Macs, and 9.2 million iPods v.s. Wall Street consensus at $5.2 billion in revenue and $0.63 in earnings-per-share. Apple's own guidance suggested $4.8-4.9 billion in revenue and $0.54-0.56 in earnings-per-share.

"For the June quarter, Apple will likely offer its usual conservative guidance. We are modeling $5.3 billion and $0.65 (from $5.3 billion and $0.62) which compares to consensus estimates of $5.5 billion and $0.68," Wu wrote.

by MacNN Staff





  1. danviento

    Joined: Dec 1969



    Hmm, hardware sales are be down until an expected new OS release comes out. For apple, this is blatant normality. Wouldn't it be nice if they could cut this site down to actual news.

    I wonder if quoting stock analyses gets this page Google hits...

  1. bobolicious

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Long haul... has been one of the longer waits on both hardware & software - upwards of 8 months on most of the line & I know I've been holding off on multiple purchasing as a result...

    Lack of transparency in upgrades is a legitimate issue for business...

  1. Mr. Fartleberry

    Joined: Dec 1969


    ask an expert

    You need an expert to tell you this? The triple wammy on no new machines, CS3 and OS-X 10.5 will create the perfect storm in Mac supply leading to widespread hysteria and ultimately, psychosis. How will a consumer get a Mac when corporate graphics users are buying them by the truckload? I'm one of those waiting in line. I doubt I'll be anywhere near the front.

  1. shawnce

    Joined: Dec 1969


    "no new machines"

    Apple is waiting for the new mobile chipsets from Intel to refresh the consumer product line (currently the iMac and Mac Mini use the mobile chipset for power efficiency).

    Apple is also waiting for new workstation chipsets from Intel to refresh the Mac Pro product.

    ...both of those chipsets are due to become available near the end of FYQ2 07 (if not much sooner). Additionally Intel is about to drop the pricing on existing processors (been generally the same price for a while now) and are about to bring out new higher clocked processors.

    In other words to-date, with the exception of Quad core Xeons (good reasons exist for Apple to not yet bother heavily with those), Apple has been using the latest chipsets and fastest processors available from Intel. So Apple had no parts to improve the product lines with (note BTO pricing has quietly changed for some items).

    I only point this out to help folks understand now that Apple is using Intel you can better understand what upgrade options Apple has and can better plan purchases.

  1. Clive

    Joined: Dec 1969



    Eh, wasn’t he saying last month that the announcement of CS3 would lead to a deluge of sales!?

  1. bobolicious

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Re: no new machines

    ...I think core 2 duos would bump the mini, as well as the rumoured larger size & 3.5" drives to 750gb...? ;-)

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