Goldman: iPhone likely to succeed

It's interesting how the "analysts" keep giving their opinion on the iPhone. A week ago, one of them said that it would fail--that the premium price would impede customers from buying it. That's also what they say about the Mac. The last time I checked, the Mac (despite recent releases) is still more expensive than a common Wintel PC yet, Macs still continue to sell more each quarter than the one previous. The $1499+ price that I paid for my black MacBook could have bought at least 4 entry level Dell PCs. Instead, I wanted the best. I paid a premium price and I haven't regretted it.

This just in: Ice likely to melt!!

Far be it from me to pit my Wall Street expertise against Goldman Sachs, but are people really going to fork over $500 or more for a phone which is LOCKED to Cingular?

Maybe GS knows something we don't, maybe the price will drop by the June rollout. Right now people are accustomed to getting their (locked) phones for free or nearly so. Not many people are geeky enough to insist upon paying $200 or more for an unlocked handset.

I predict an initial sales spike to early adopters and people-with-too-much-money, then tailing off to a rather tepid sales pace until Apple rolls out less expensive models and consumers find out from the bleeding-edgers if the iPhone is worth buying.

I would not count on the price being $500 for the iPhone - Look for a $399 or $349 entry point for the iPhone. As far as being locked to one provider, how often to people actually switch their providers, not very.

The simplicity of the iPhone will make it a winner - I don't-have-way-too-much-money, and would consider and iPhone. Even as a programmer I think 'Smart' phones are way to compicated to be time-saving and useful.

Looks for the iPhone to turn the industry on it's ear trying to keep up.

Back in 1998 or so I predicted the iMac would never catch on because it wasn't powerful enough.

Back in 2001 I predicted that OS X would be a failure because it was too powerful and kludgy for the average user.

A couple years later I predicted that the iPod would be a modest success.

I have learned my lesson and am now predicting that the iPhone - at whatever price Apple decides to sell it for - will be a success. As Jobs said in the keynote, all he wants is 1% market share to start. I think that he would be perfectly happy to take .5% in the first year.

One thing people seem to do here is assume everyone's situation is exactly like their own. Yes, people will pay $500 for a cool phone. People pay $50,000 and more for a cool car. People buy larger houses than they can afford. Why wouldn't they pay a measily five hundred bucks for a cool phone?

If your product is cool, people will pay.

FINALLY someone that has a clue! Thank you!

as for analysts: UP YOURS!

If it's too expensive, you're not the target audience. Get over it. Just because you won't buy it doesn't mean ten million others won't.

Here are my bold predictions for the iPhone:

$499-599 for 4-8GB capacity, respectively AT&T (formally Cingular) as the exclusive supplier It'll be a success.

...and whether *I* would pay $500 for a cell phone. It's a question of, how many people are willing to fork over for a $500 cell phone?

Plenty of people are spending $50K (and more) for cars these days. We already know that market exists. However at this present moment, very few people are paying anything near $500 for any kind of cellular device.

If Apple can convince *significant numbers* of consumers - not status-seeking VIPs or corporations who are buying Blackberrys for their executives, I mean everyday consumers - to fork over $500 or $600 for an iPhone, then they will have created a heretofore nonexistent segment of the market. And as a shareholder, I will applaud them!

But right now, no one is forking over anything remotely close to that much money for a cell phone, no matter how many capabilities it has. Instead, as I have pointed out, most people are accustomed to heavily subsidized cell phones, getting them for nearly free or better (I ended up $75 ahead after rebates when I got a RAZR).

Again, if Apple's mighty marketing and industrial design powers can convince a significant number of people to break long-ingrained habits and pay hundreds of dollars for a phone that is locked to Cingular - which by the way is a carrier with a poor reputation - AND carry a two-year contract (what do you pay per month including data services???), then hats off to them.

I just don't see it happening, absent some kind of significant discount on either the monthly charges or the handset. And while you're lecturing me about not forming judgments on an entire market based on what *I* would or would not pay for, let's remember that the cellular market is also not composed of Apple-worshipping technogeeks.