02/14/2007, 9:35am, EST
Wednesday, February 14th
Vista launch to drop Mac market share
"Due to pent-up demand for PCs with Vista pre-installed, we anticipate a spike in PC sales during the March quarter, which could put downward pressure on Mac market share," Munster wrote in a note obtained by MacNN. "We also anticipate a general increase in computer sales, including Macs, as customers consider several options for their computer purchase."
Munster expects that Mac market share will decline from 2.5 percent in December to 2.3 percent in March; however, he believes that Apple will gain share in 2007 despite the Vista-related refresh cycle.
The analyst notes that Apple is taking advantage of the upgrade cycle -- what it calls the "Vista opportunity" by direct marketing to iPod users and well placed television campaign focused on the hassles of upgrading to Windows Vista. Around the time of the consumer Vista launch, Apple initiated several strategies to attract Vista customers, the firm noted. In an email to registered iPod owners with PCs, Apple asked customers: "Upgrading to Vista? Think Mac." Apple also launched national TV ad campaigns in the US as well as the UK and Japan criticizing Vista's difficult installation process and frustrating security features.
"The company's retail stores will also be used in an effort to monetize the 'Vista opportunity' as store employees are mphasizing the fact that Macs run both Mac OS X and Windows," Munster wrote.
Vista sales slow, pre-installed Vista PCs sell well
The firm's survey of 50 Best Buy stores around the U.S. found that Vista sales have not met expectations, but that PC sales have increased since Vista's launch. Of the 50 stores Piper surveyed, 80 percent indicated that they have sold fewer copies of Vista than they had expected; however, more than 70 percent of the stores indicated that PC sales have increased since the Vista launch.
Piper Jaffray has an 'outperform' rating on Apple stock with a target price of $124.
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He used the 'upgrade cycle' as his argument in both cases.
"Vista launch to drop Windows XP market share"
which is much more likely then any other 'prediction';
but again it is just speculation anyway!!!
Speculation that may prove to be false...
WHICH IS NOT NEWS!!
So it's entirely plausible that right now (given there is no new Mac hardware on the market) that PCs will sell at a faster rate than in previous months, while Mac sales will not increase at the same rate, thus increasing PC market share. And this will likely be entirely attributed to Vista.
However, should Apple put out new hardware in the near future, this could be reversed. Additionally, when Leopard arrives that will be a spur for people to upgrade their Macs as well.
So while it sounds strange, it's not at all. He's just commenting on a metric that is inherently flawed, and how those flaws will cause the metric to fluctuate in the market. The real boogie man is that Market Share is a pretty useless metric.
Just because the mac-faithful can't go five minutes without having to stare at a mac at a computer store doesn't mean the PC world lives in the same culture. Plus, at my CompUSA rarely anyone watches any video demos, Mac or PC.