Vista launch to drop Mac market share
updated 09:35 am EST, Wed February 14, 2007
Vista lowers Mac share
The launch of Microsoft's Vista operating system is likely to have a negative impact on Apple's market share in the March quarter in the short term, while at the same time providing an opportunity for Apple to lure new PC buyers who consider upgrading their PCs. Research firm Piper Jaffray says that while Microsoft has seen relatively lack luster sales of its Vista operating system, the release of Windows Vista has spurred a PC upgrade cycle among buyers and that the surge of PC sales would likely lead to a decrease in Mac market share for the quarter. Senior analyst Gene Munster believes that the trend is only temporary and that the company will see rebounding market share in the coming months as Apple preps the launch of Mac OS X Leopard this spring, it continues to lure new PC buyers spurred by the release of Vista, and benefits from industry-wide shift to portables -- a category in which Apple continues to dominate.
"Due to pent-up demand for PCs with Vista pre-installed, we anticipate a spike in PC sales during the March quarter, which could put downward pressure on Mac market share," Munster wrote in a note obtained by MacNN. "We also anticipate a general increase in computer sales, including Macs, as customers consider several options for their computer purchase."
Munster expects that Mac market share will decline from 2.5 percent in December to 2.3 percent in March; however, he believes that Apple will gain share in 2007 despite the Vista-related refresh cycle.
The analyst notes that Apple is taking advantage of the upgrade cycle -- what it calls the "Vista opportunity" by direct marketing to iPod users and well placed television campaign focused on the hassles of upgrading to Windows Vista. Around the time of the consumer Vista launch, Apple initiated several strategies to attract Vista customers, the firm noted. In an email to registered iPod owners with PCs, Apple asked customers: "Upgrading to Vista? Think Mac." Apple also launched national TV ad campaigns in the US as well as the UK and Japan criticizing Vista's difficult installation process and frustrating security features.
"The company's retail stores will also be used in an effort to monetize the 'Vista opportunity' as store employees are mphasizing the fact that Macs run both Mac OS X and Windows," Munster wrote.
Vista sales slow, pre-installed Vista PCs sell well
The firm's survey of 50 Best Buy stores around the U.S. found that Vista sales have not met expectations, but that PC sales have increased since Vista's launch. Of the 50 stores Piper surveyed, 80 percent indicated that they have sold fewer copies of Vista than they had expected; however, more than 70 percent of the stores indicated that PC sales have increased since the Vista launch.
Piper Jaffray has an 'outperform' rating on Apple stock with a target price of $124.
only an analyst
02/14, 10:56am reply
could predict a reduction of market share and an increase in market share due to the same criteria, in the same sentence.
dashiel
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Huh?
02/14, 11:14am reply
Did no one catch that Munster made comments today about how Vista will eat Apple's recent share gains, AND that Leopard will eat Vista sales?
He used the 'upgrade cycle' as his argument in both cases.
bfalchuk
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See saw
02/14, 11:43am reply
See saw, now you see it and now you don't. That's the way Vista will look like when Leopard releases. I visited my local CompUSA store last weekend and the Vista area was D.E.A.D.! Absoulutely no one there. Only a few video monitors continually playing demos but nobody watching.
horvatic
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Real stats, anyone?
02/14, 11:47am reply
Everyone I've talked to plans on waiting at least a year before even considering looking at Vista, even people who had just bought a new machine before it came out. We all know that businesses won't buy it for some time yet, and if normal consumers are leery, I'd put money on this not happenning.
danviento
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wrong
02/14, 11:49am reply
title of this article should have been more realistic
"Vista launch to drop Windows XP market share"
which is much more likely then any other 'prediction';
but again it is just speculation anyway!!!
Speculation that may prove to be false...
WHICH IS NOT NEWS!!
hokizpokis
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and THEN
02/14, 11:57am reply
he woke up only to find he wet himself. Such a scenario could only come from a microshit's executive hallucination.
jarod
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blah
02/14, 12:19pm reply
The annoying thing is they are talking about market share. All that is is the monthly fraction of the market that each vendor gets.
So it's entirely plausible that right now (given there is no new Mac hardware on the market) that PCs will sell at a faster rate than in previous months, while Mac sales will not increase at the same rate, thus increasing PC market share. And this will likely be entirely attributed to Vista.
However, should Apple put out new hardware in the near future, this could be reversed. Additionally, when Leopard arrives that will be a spur for people to upgrade their Macs as well.
So while it sounds strange, it's not at all. He's just commenting on a metric that is inherently flawed, and how those flaws will cause the metric to fluctuate in the market. The real boogie man is that Market Share is a pretty useless metric.
Rincewind
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Does anyone
02/14, 12:53pm reply
Have a reliable source for Apple's current market share? I've heard anything from 5% and up to 2.5%.
ff11
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re:Does anyone
02/14, 03:41pm reply
That depends on whether you are talking about global or US marketshare.
aristotles
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Joined: Jul 2004
Re: see saw
02/14, 05:53pm reply
See saw, now you see it and now you don't. That's the way Vista will look like when Leopard releases. I visited my local CompUSA store last weekend and the Vista area was D.E.A.D.! Absoulutely no one there. Only a few video monitors continually playing demos but nobody watching.
Just because the mac-faithful can't go five minutes without having to stare at a mac at a computer store doesn't mean the PC world lives in the same culture. Plus, at my CompUSA rarely anyone watches any video demos, Mac or PC.
LouZer
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