toggle

AAPL Stock: 116.47 ( + 0.16 )

Printed from http://www.macnn.com

Apple to surpass Microsoft revenue in 5 yrs?

updated 01:10 pm EST, Mon January 29, 2007

Apple to surpass MS?

Apple may have shot at outgrowing Microsoft within the next five years if it continues its phenomenal growth. An analysis at 10Layers.com indicates that the Cupertino-based company may indeed generate more revenue than Microsoft as a result of its exponential growth patterns. Apple's revenue has dramatically jumped since 2002 -- from just under $6 billion to just under $21 billion in 2006. While Microsoft has posted significant growth during the same period, its growth has been linear -- more modest than Apple's -- the report says.

Apple during its excessive growth period introduced the iPod, which helped to balloon its revenue to more than $7 billion in its last fiscal quarter. While some analysts predict sales are likely slow in the coming months or years, the company does have other products in its pipeline such as Apple TV and the iPhone -- both of which could continue Apple's dramatic growth.

"Both Microsoft and Apple have seen healthy revenue growth in the last 5 years. Microsoft's revenues have grown approximately 60 percent from just under $30B in 2002 to over $44B in 2006," the report states. "However, while Microsoft has grown linearly for this period, Apple has accelerated with revenues of just under $6B in 2002 growing to just under $21B in 2006."

Apple's increase equates to an "impressive" 250 percent revenue growth during the period. "In other words, Apple has been growing much faster than Microsoft," the report concluded.

Figures from the last quarterly Apple conference call also show that the Mac market, currently near 5 percent in the U.S., is growing very rapidly and outpacing the PC industry. Mac sales, the company said, have outpaced market growth in eight of the last nine quarters and grew at about 3 times IDC's published growth rate for the PC market during the quarter.



10Layers based its extrapolation on revenue figures for the trailing 12 months, providing data on which to base trend lines that is insensitive to seasonal variations. The analysis found a linear growth curve for Microsoft and a second order polynomial growth curve for Apple. However, the analysis is somewhat rudimentary as Microsoft has only very recently released a new version of its two flagship products -- Office and Windows -- and has yet to see significant sales from either product.




by MacNN Staff

POST TOOLS:

TAGS :

toggle

Comments

  1. ZinkDifferent

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    yeah, right...

    ...but Microsoft will be releasing several new versions of their Zzzzune player, along with enhanced versions of the XBox, which will result in steeper sales for them - not to mnetion the phenomenal sales success of Vista which will catapult them way ahead of Apple, again.

    Too many variables in the future of Apple, including expected problems with the iPhone, and security problems with their Mac OS X product (there is one virus, or so I hear), will result in Apple sliding down into a niche player, again.

    (The above was my effort to be just as accurate as a Gartner analyst, in case you couldn't figure it out).

  1. Guest

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    and in 10 years...

    if their growth continues at the exponential rate described Apple will earn all the money that has ever been printed.

    This is silly. Take a short term "exponential" growth curve and project if forward by more than double the time period reviewed... you simply cannot do it and expect anything even close to a reasonable analysis. As they say, past performance is no indication of future performance... and in this case, is the most absurd flight of fancy I can imagine.

  1. Peter Bonte

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Sarcasm

    Apple is still a niche player as a computer maker but a virus won't stop the iPod, iTV nor the iPhone. osX is the least important market at the moment, Apple can choose to stay a niche (thats fine with me) or it can choose to license the OS (also fine with me).

    Zune is DOA, Windows CE will be killed by the iPhone, Vista won't sell more than XP (1 copy with every new PC) and the Xbox won't make a real profit for at least 3-4 years.

    I know your being sarcastic but i find the outlook for MS not that good, the only option they have for a higher profit is a higher OEM price for Vista II but there is a limit as hardware prices go down.

  1. just a poster

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Microsoft is a criminal

    enterprise with low-quality products. The company should not be in business at all.

  1. TailsToo

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    .

    It gets me sick how there are dumb analysts out there that would publish something like this. The guy probably makes a 6 figure income to do nothing but do a simple trend analysis. Sad thing is that some people will jump on this report, because well, since an analyst said it, it must be right.

  1. hokizpokis

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    ****

    I give this yet unnamed analyst credit for future prediction and speculation.

    Speculations and predictions have little value to anyone.

    Using logic with a little prediction I conclude that AAPL will surpass MSFTs' market cap before the five year period above.

    My speculation is that MSFT Vista will indeed be hacked -all 6 versions- and since no new OS is in the MSFT pipeline, the 'security' companies behind the 'hacking' will fail to collapse due to the Vista exploits which just tunnel into Vista upgraders pockets... the collossal and epic blunder will take with it the majority of the 'enterprize market' and the entire tech sector will suffer huge losses... don't be suprised when Steve Jobs gets his take-over chance of MSFT and he refuses to save the dinosaur from extinction...

    PS...look for the fall of nations who rely on Vista not to mension the thousands of other companies who rely on the rubicon to do day to day business---each of them getting wiped out from 'criminal OS software design'....

    hey and if I'm wrong, so what... but if I'm even half right don't say I didn't warn you!!

    I believe that there should be more players in the OS creation field, many more players are needed

  1. rubaiyat

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Bizarre units

    ..and predict the predict the present shipping target of 2300 gigazombinos will rise to an annual rate of 0.137 lardules.

    Which as everyone can see is an exponential growth rate unmatched since Emperor Zinian IV's bathnight.

    What is it with this Q404? How does this relate to Earth years?

    My other pet peeve is quoting in US seasons. We're all left to wonder: when exactly do leaves change wherever it is you live?

Login Here

Not a member of the MacNN forums? Register now for free.

toggle

Network Headlines

toggle

Most Popular

MacNN Sponsor

Recent Reviews

Plantronics BackBeat Pro Bluetooth headphones

Looking for a pair of headphones that can do everything a user requires is a task that can take some study. Trying to decide on in-ear ...

MaxUpgrades 512GB Retina MacBook Pro SSD

Apple's Retina line of MacBook Pro notebooks have been impressive, right from their debut in 2012. Thinner than the previous model, t ...

Lemur BlueDriver

"Oh no, the check engine light is on…again! What one of the hundreds of reasons could it be this time? Probably going to cost a for ...

toggle

Most Commented