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Gartner: Mac growth to remain stagnant

updated 06:15 pm EST, Wed January 24, 2007

Gartner: No Mac growth

Apple is unlikely to capitalize on fluctuations in the 2007 operating system market, according to a forecast released by the research firm Gartner. Electronista notes that even as Windows Vista and Mac OS X Leopard make their arrivals, Macs are still expected to account for only 2.9 percent of the market, with Linux also failing to grow at 4.1 percent. This is despite a year of significant sales and media attention, as well as predictions by rival research firms. Gartner does not distinguish between the different Mac operating systems, but does separate Windows variants. The adoption of Windows Vista is expected to be relatively slow this year, with just 12.3 percent of computers making the switch. The dominant OS should continue to be the five-year-old Windows XP, reaching 77.1 percent. It's predicted that Vista will only overtake XP in 2009, reaching a figure of 55.4 percent.




by MacNN Staff

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  1. SierraDragon

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Gartner is irrelevant

    Gartner puts out a lot of PR and must be being paid by someone, but their Mac commentary is invariably lame at best. Too bad there is not a market in betting against Gartner's incompetent forecasts.

  1. bobolicious

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Wrong, wrong, wrong...

    ...wrong, wrong...

    Just about every windows user on the planet I hear of is at least 'thinking' about switching and asking about the mac - throw in boot camp & parallels & the fact that hardware prices are actually improving value for features now & I sure as heck wouldn't short APPL stock for the long term...

  1. armwt

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    b*******

    I really, REALLY friggin' hate Gartner.

    Our CIO thinks their word is golden. A few years ago he read a report that said "it is too expensive to support dual platforms". So he decided to phase out Macs at our office (I work for an office that was about 60/40 Mac/PC at the time)

    4 years later, it is certainly costing us more in frustration and security concerns with trying to support old OS 8 and OS 9 boxes that he won't let us replace with anything other than a Dell, and which users refuse to give up for anything other than a new Mac.

    *sigh*

  1. jarod

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Who is this

    IDIOT?!

  1. FastAMX79

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    ???

    Gartner says 2.9% is mac. others say 4.1, while more 'others' say 4.9

    Gartner says no new mac switchers. others say a lot are at least thinking about it, while numbers show (according to apple) a lot of the mac sales are to switchers.

    where does Gartner get their numbers from???? their asses??

  1. dynsight

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    M$ probably paying

    C'mon, Microsoft hates anything not Microsoft. They are paying people to write on WikiPedia (once that we know of), I am sure they are shelling out much money to provide bad press on Apple's growth. If people "knew" that Apple's market share was not growing, they would be more reluctant to switch.

  1. ClevelandAdv

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    I agree

    That Windows Vista growth will be stagnent, but Mac OS growth will be substantial espically over the next two quarters when PC sales are traditionally slow. Vista is not going to save PC sales - because it is not getting very good press...Apple is

  1. JulesLt

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Stats

    As an IT professional for 15 years, I always find Gartner hilarious. However, in this case it depends how you play the numbers.

    Gartner is presumably looking at the whole market, not just the desktop. The Linux stats give that away.

    Equally, while Mac sales have soared, and anecdotal evidence suggests a lot of home users I know are about to switch, the overall market has grown faster. (I suspect a factor in that is that businesses now find it cheaper to buy new PCs than even spend any time on repairing them). If you're talking global sales, then even more so.

    From Apple's point of view, however, they're growing in their sector of the market, which is significant.

  1. macbones

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    year over year. . .

    2004: • Q1 (ended 12/27/03): revenue of $2.006 billion, net quarterly profit of $63 million, 829,000 Macs, 733,000 iPods • Q2 (ended 03/27/04): revenue of $1.909 billion, net quarterly profit of $14 million, 749,000 Macs, 807,000 iPods • Q3 (ended 06/26/04): revenue of $2.014 billion, net quarterly profit of $61 million, 876,000 Macs, 860,000 iPods • Q4 (ended 09/25/04): revenue of $2.350 billion, net quarterly profit of $106 million, 836,000 Macs, 02.016 million iPods

    2005: • Q1 (ended 12/25/04): revenue of $3.49 billion, net quarterly profit of $295 million, 1.046 million Macs, 04.580 million iPods • Q2 (ended 03/26/05): revenue of $3.24 billion, net quarterly profit of $290 million, 1.070 million Macs, 05.311 million iPods • Q3 (ended 07/13/05): revenue of $3.52 billion, net quarterly profit of $320 million, 1.182 million Macs, 06.155 million iPods • Q4 (ended 10/11/05): revenue of $3.68 billion, net quarterly profit of $430 million, 1.236 million Macs, 06.451 million iPods

    2006: • Q1 (ended 12/31/05): revenue of $5.75 billion, net quarterly profit of $565 million, 1.254 million Macs, 14.043 million iPods • Q2 (ended 04/01/06): revenue of $4.36 billion, net quarterly profit of $410 million, 1.112 million Macs, 08.526 million iPods • Q3 (ended 07/01/06): revenue of $4.37 billion, net quarterly profit of $472 million, 1.327 million Macs, 08.111 million iPods • Q4 (ended 09/30/06): revenue of $4.84 billion, net quarterly profit of $546 million, 1.610 million Macs, 08.729 million iPods

    2007: • Q1 (ended 12/30/06): revenue of $7.10 billion, net quarterly profit of $1 billion, 1.606 million Macs, 21.066 million iPods

    I'm not sure if the year over year could be much better.

  1. ecrelin

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    yesmen

    Gartner is a phony forecast group that is part and parcel to the "Channel" which is one of, no, its the main reason Windows maintains massive marketshare. For those of you who don't know nearly every small to sizable company buys their equipment through resellers that make all kinds of spifs and incentives. Gartner, who once offered me a job as an analyst, provides "guidance" to help steer the market, they are buyable too. It is the PC makers who finance all this and M$ gets the coattail ride as they always have. Apple does not play there and therefore gets panned or ignored. The channel is deathly afraid of Apple as they become irrelevant and that is lots and lots of people pushing lots and lots of c***. Seriously moving to other platforms will hurt a lot of people and have notable economic impacts but in a month, after the horror stories have really begun, American business will not be able to afford to continue to support this layer of inefficiency. It will be interesting to see, Korea has fired the first shot and alternative adoption will skyrocket. FYI CNN did a story on computers vs spouses with computers winning the time spent quotion, the interesting point was that the average computer user (read PC) spends 12 hours a month on maintenance!!! Winds of change in the air. Ed Baig's (USA Today) update that took all night on a pretty new and powerful machine has only crashed once since yesterday…

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