01/18/2007, 9:20am, EST
Thursday, January 18th
Worldwide Mac market declines sequentially
Apple's Macintosh share of the (worldwide) PC market fell to 2.4 percent during the December quarter based on preliminary data from IDC, but analysts believe that the release of Adobe Photoshop CS3 in April will help market share bounce back in the coming quarters. Analyst firm Piper Jaffray told clients that while Mac share increased year-over-year (i.e., from the same period in the previous year), the company's market share declined sequentially by 0.4 percent from the traditionally strong September quarter (2.8 percent). "Mac market share is generally higher in September quarters, due to strong education-related sales," Gene Munster told investors. "We expect Apple's market share to bounce back following the shipment of CS3 from Adobe (expected in April)." [headline updated]
Senior Research Analyst Munster estimates that 15 percent of Apple's installed base are pro Adobe users, waiting for CS3 to be released before buying a new Mac. During its conference call yesterday, Apple told investors that Mac Pro shipments during the December quarter met internal expectations, but that the company also sees a pause in sales to its Pro markets and also expects sales to pick up on the release of Adobe Photoshop CS3, the first native Intel version of the professional graphics application.
During the December quarter, the company only shipped 1.6 million Macs, short of Wall Streets' expectations of 1.75 million, Munster wrote. "Despite initial
investor reaction, we believe the Street will eventually view the December Mac
number as positive. Mac numbers were flat quarter-over-quarter, in line with the average Mac performance over the past five years. The Street got ahead of itself."
Mac unit sensitivity analysis suggests that if Mac market share averages 3.5 percent throughout the 2007 calendar year, fiscal 2007 earnings-per-share (EPS) estimate of $2.59 would be $0.44 or 14 percent too low, the firm told clients as it readjusted its outlook for 2007.
The firm was upbeat on the company's record iPod quarter of 21 million units, noting strong iPod shuffle shipments and the continued growing potential for a halo effect.
Munster said that Apple's footprint "considerably expanded by 15 million users in December" on the assumption that 75 percent of iPods went to first time owners. "This equates to to a 29 percent increase in Apple's iPod user base; consumers who are now more likely to buy a Mac. We believe the mix of Shuffle increased from 25 percent to 38 percent of over all iPods."
PiperJaffray revised its fiscal 2007 EPS estimate to $3.03, increased the price target on shares of Apple from $99 to $124, and maintains an "outperform" rating on Apple.
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(this really hurts all other players in the PC industry)
So in spite of this good news Apple bashing is still a fashion statement?? WTF??
So what does this tell you about the industry or the analysists'??
I see the entire PC industry is on the verge of total collapse...ie, MS vista / the mobile phone industry are shaking in there boots as Apple continues to clobber the mp3 market place with iPods and take REAL market share away from the bloated MS.
(OK MS is still king of the hill because the market is full of zombie pc buyers who care only about cheap pcs' and are clueless soon to be victims of the modern age)
Do these analysis' realize that nobody wants old tired technology anymore?? These are the same wackos that have no clue what is in fact going on in the real world, to no suprise of the few in the know...
PSSSt.. and they will continue to be ignorant because instead of being honest they are trying to 'steer' the industry back into the 'technology trap'; because this gives them an economic advantage over them...a cleaver and cruel game never the less...
The truth is the PC industry is a dead end; it is still grasping for profits based on yesterdays technologies...and this is a death march heading into pc hell, where the circus clowns and barkers are the industry barrons....
Are we to invest our retirement horde on pc companies that have no vision and are still trying to lower production costs to incease margins on grey boxes that were designed to run windows 95?? duh!!
These analysists' are the real problem with the industry (true ignorance breeds contempt)... I'm not suprised to hear they still want windows 95 apps to run on Mac OS X; and now they have got their wish from a company called Crossover which just anounced software that allows win programs to run on os x SANS windows...
So the microsoft KILLEr is here; yes its true, there is now even less reason to invest in 'spyware/virus infested operating systems, ie windows vista; then ever before'; even less reasons to invest in companies that first creat bugs then charge you for the fix, like mcaffe and symantec...(true criminals in my book)
...we wont get fooled again