AmTech on Apple consensus

Apple may surprise investors in 2007 as the published consensus estimates for 2007 look reasonable but are likely conservative, according to American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu. "This is a very different scenario than in 2006," Wu wrote in a research note obtained by MacNN. "We argue that estimates have finally been reset, leaving Apple room to surprise on the upside." Wu believes Apple will experience strong product momentum in 2007, with Mac OS X Leopard offering tighter Windows integration to accelerate Mac sales alongside iTV ushering in a new product category. The Cupertino-based company will also likely introduce new iPods with widescreens and Bluetooth technology amongst rumors of its 'iPhone' cellular handset.

"We are introducing fiscal year 2008 estimates of $28.1 billion in revenue and $3.50 (vs. consensus at $27.8 billion and $3.28,)" said Wu. "We are assuming Mac growth of 23 percent to 8.8 million units, iPod growth of 9 percent to 47.3 million units, and cell phone contribution of $326 million, up from $100 million in fiscal year 2007."

The analyst admits that his assumptions are likely conservative, and are particularly shy with regard to iPods and cellular phones. American Technology Research maintains its $99 price target based on its unchanged calendar year earnings-per-share estimate of $2.91

by MacNN Staff