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Analyst refutes iTunes sales collapse

updated 12:35 pm EST, Wed December 13, 2006

iTunes sales growth

Analysis of Apple's iTunes Music Store sales by research firm Piper Jaffray reveals strong growth year over year, contradicting recent reports that iTunes sales may be plummeting. "From January to September in 2005 Apple sold 10.4 million songs per week and in 2006 that number was up 78 percent to 18.5 million songs per week over the same 9-month period," said Piper Jaffray senior analyst Gene Munster. Noting that iTunes sales usually peak after the holiday shopping season and decelerate slightly throughout the year, the analyst expects another strong upturn this January. "We continue to believe the shift to online distribution of media is in its infancy. We estimate 5 percent of worldwide music sales were online in 2006."

Piper Jaffray analyzed iTunes music sales data, discovering strong year over year growth in 2005 and 2006, comparing total sales between January and September of 2005 and 2006. "In the month of January 2005 the store's songs-per-day average was up 58 percent sequentially and in February 2006 (the closest data point year over year) the store's songs-per-day average was up 51 percent sequentially," Munster said, attributing the post-holiday growth to new iPod owners and iTunes gift card users. "We expect another uptick in early 2007. After strong post-holiday sales the weekly run-rate decelerated in both 2005 and 2006 (down 5 percent in 2005 and down 27 percent in 2006), which we view as a regular seasonal pattern."

by MacNN Staff




  1. ZinkDifferent

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Oh, you mean...

    ... Forester research didn't know what they were talking about ... again!

  1. testudo

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Up next!

    Citigroup analysts will be reporting that sales will be flat!

  1. wingdo

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Of course

    And of course on the front page of either the Tempo section or Business section of the Chicago Tribune (can't recall which and the paper is in my car) as a HUGE article on the first report and how sales are WAY down.,1,3414433.story?ctrack=1&cset=true

  1. Ganesha

    Joined: Dec 1969


    A easy way to check...

    Is to look at your iTunes receipt number. They are incrementally numbered. And at every major milestone, they are averaging just over 6 songs per receipt.

    This puts the estimated songs to date at just around 2 billion. So expect a 2 billion songs sold milestone to be announced soon.

  1. jdonahoe

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Microsoft conspiracy!!!

    This is all part of "under the table" payoffs by Microsoft to try to undermine itunes sales by placing a seed of doubt about Apple's future. I'm sure Forrester will be reporting how ipod sales are in steep decline, too.

  1. johnblommers

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Apple shares credit card?

    So Forrester analyzed credit card transactions?

    Ehem am I the only one here outraged by the privacy implications of this?

    Wake up people. The story is not that Forrester's analysts suck, it is that they have your credit card data!

  1. ender

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Re: of course

    Yup, it's the business section of the Chicago Trib. The article takes up about half the front page of the biz section and continues to take up a 5th of page 5. The 2nd sentence starts quoting the Forrester analyst's "research". In all fairness, they also include Apple's statement saying the numbers are incorrect; but it's only two sentences of the entire article. And the large graphic on the front page touts the Forrester research showing huge drop-off of iTunes sales.

  1. jfelbab

    Joined: Dec 1969


    It's that time of year..

    (Christmas Bonus time) where these so called expert analysts need to show their bosses that a lot of people read their reports. History has shown us that there is no better way to stir up public response than to throw digs at Apple. Guess who will be getting a Christmas bonus this year?

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