Analyst: market share to rise in 2007

Research analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray believes that Mac market share will likely continue to grow in 2007 due to completion of the company's Intel transition, improved availability of Macs, an expanding footprint of Apple customers due to the iPod 'halo effect,' and the ability to run Microsoft Windows on a Mac. "Mac market share in Q3 was 2.8 percent and will likely be around 3.0 percent in Q4, which is up from 2.1 percent in Q1," Munster wrote in a research note obtained by MacNN. "Street estimates currently call for Mac market share in calendar year 2007 of 2.7 percent. If Mac market share grows at the same rate seen in calendar year 2006 (approximately 1.0 percent), we could see 4.0 percent by the end of calendar year 2007, with an average of 3.5 percent for the year." Were Apple to achieve 3.5 percent Mac market share in 2007, Wall Street earnings-per-share estimates would likely fall short of actual performance by $0.34, or around 11.6 percent.

With worldwide Mac market share estimated at around 2.8 percent, Munster expects Apple's share in the PC market to grow to around 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter. "This would result in market share growth of approximately 1 percent throughout calendar year 2006, at an average market share for the year of around 2.5 percent," the analyst wrote. "Based on several catalysts, we believe Mac market share can grow by 1 percent again in calendar year 2007, ending the year at around 4 percent, with an average for the year of 3.5 percent."

Wall Street estimates currently assume Mac market share of 2.7 percent for calendar year 2007, but Piper Jaffray estimates that an increase in Mac market share to 3.5 percent would result in an upside to the Street calendar year 2007 earnings-per-share of $0.34 or 11.6 percent.

Filed under: Investor