15.5-16m iPod sales?

Analysis of monthly NPD data by research firm Piper Jaffray for the first two months of Apple's December quarter suggests that the company is on track to sell 15.5-16 million iPods, well short of the 17 million figure (US sales only) estimated by CNBC earlier this week. "We believe the launch of the shuffle on 11/3 had a material positive impact on NPD data for the second month of the quarter," wrote Piper Jaffray senior analyst Gene Munster in a research note obtained by MacNN. "Based on our checks with Apple resellers and NPD data, we continue to expect Apple will report slight upside for the December quarter." Munster notes however that his 15.5-16 million unit range is based on various assumptions, and is an extrapolation of two months of data whicih should be supplemented with further information.

The analyst's methodology behind the analysis of NPD iPod unit data begins with looking at the percentage contribution in NPD data from each month of the quarter in past December quarters. Piper Jaffray broke down iPod shipments in December of 2005, December of 2004, and December of 2003 monthly to reveal 12.1 percent for October, 22.2 percent for November, and 65.8 percent in December (on average).

"Using the first two months of NPD data and the typical percentage of iPods shipped in the first two months, we can extrapolate to get an estimate for what NPD data will look like for the full December 2006 quarter," Munster wrote.

by MacNN Staff