Vista will help OS X more because it'll be so crappy, people will be fed up and switch to the Mac.

Vista is an OSX Skin for Windows. What saps.

Vista is a major overhaul, but just shy of a complete re-write. This means that early adapters will suffer all the pains that Mac OS X 1.0 users suffered (and probably more), but without the full promise of an unencumbered system. Some will drop MS altogether, more will stick to XP, but most will eventually adapt Vista somwhere down the line... a couple of years from now perhaps. All in all, the Mac will continue to look like a great alternative to those on the fence... marketshare should continue to grow rapidly. Apple stock will split again next year.

It should be fun to hear the MS faithful repeat all the complaints we heard about OS X five years ago! You know... this interface is clunky... a waste of cycles... eye candy... can't find anything... this is the last straw, I'm moving to Linux, blah, blah, blah.

So the consumer's mind, at least according to MarketWatch, works like this: "Hmm, this Windows Vista I hear about seems to look like that Mac OS X I also hear about. So I guess I will choose Mac OS X."

Pretty far-fetched, I think. Consumers usually don't make clever, informed decisions.

From experience I think it will come down to a couple things: 1. Cost, 2. Can I do everything I want that I'm used to doing. The cost part is taken care of. What we need is the equivalent of the 1997 proposal of Blue, Yellow, and Red boxes where blue is classic, Yellow is now Cocoa, and Red is Windows apps. Just like we needed classic to help us adopt OS X for the first couple years, we need better than bootcamp (Parallels or vmware) to run windows apps to help transition. And then the new Mac switchers can find the equivalent Mac applications at their own leisure or as their demand gets those built. Having a red box that is more officially from Apple would be very helpful as the last hurdle I think. But it should remain such that the OS X native is most desirable to keep the demand there for OS X native so developers don't get lazy and tell us to just run the Windows version on Mac.

why do we need a red box for windows apps? windows switchers will already likely have a legit copy of windows, which they can run with BootCamp or Parallels.

Bootcamp is good in that is will be officially supported and it's already perceived as officially supported since it will be. It's weakness is that I need to reboot to run that one win-only app. Parallels is good in that it allows me to run windows apps without shutting down OS X but it lacks the full legitimacy that official support would give. Maybe that can be overcome if Apple gives it a nice recommend. So those are both good options but official running windows apps on top of OS X would finish the job. I can't think of how it would hurt.

The do give Parallels a good recommend! So most of my original point has evaporated http://www.apple.com/getamac/windows.html

I was a beta tester, so I already have a final copy of Vista on my Dell. Because Vista is so similar to OS X, right down to the flippy triangles and the shadow around the topmost window, I think Vista users are going to be less likely to switch to Macs with Tiger because of Vista.

However, for those upgrading, Vista's installation takes a long time. The upgrade installation is problematical.

For all users, quite a lot of programs written for XP do not work on Vista (about a half-dozen of mine). Quite a lot of hardware won't work with Vista, either. For example, there is no Vista driver for my color laser printer. I can only use it from my Macs.

Vista isn't really that bad compared to Tiger, but Vista is on its way in while Tiger is on its way out. What will drive consumer and Pro sales to Apple is not how bad Vista is, but how much better Leopard is.

The real ace up Apple's sleeve is not OS X, it is customer service.

If you have a PC, you have an OEM copy of Windows. Manufacturers don't support upgrades. Microsoft is scant help unless you are a large business. If something doesn't work, you can get caught in the middle. The PC vendor says it is a Windows problem, but Microsoft says it is a hardware problem--if you can get support from Microsoft at all. With Dell, the most you can hope for is a live chat with a technician on Mars. With Apple, you can talk to a technician face-to-face for free.

When a PC user visits an Apple Store, sees how personal and accessible customer service is, and finds out that after the purchase, they aren't isolated and alone, then their affection turns toward Mac.