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Adobe CS3 to drive Mac sales in 2007

updated 09:55 am EST, Tue November 7, 2006

Adobe CS3, Mac sales

The anticipated launch of Adobe's Creative Suite CS3 will have a measurable impact on Mac sales next year, according to research firm Piper Jaffray. The company spoke with 50 Adobe customers, finding that 24 percent expect to purchase a new Mac within two quarters of the release of Adobe's CS3, which will run natively on Intel-based Macs and is expected to launch in April of 2007. "Current versions of Adobe's creative products, such as Creative Suite, Photoshop, etc., do not run at full efficiency on Intel-based Macs," wrote senior analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray in a research note obtained by MacNN. "The bottom line is that there is significant pent-up demand for Intel-based Macs among the Adobe creative pro community." Adobe creative pro customers cannot currently run Adobe apps at full effiency on an Intel-based Mac until CS3 is released, and so are biding their time until the update arrives.

Of the 50 Adobe users interviewed, 10 percent said they have already upgraded to an Intel-based Mac. Adobe has a creative pro customer base of around 3 million, according to Munster, which suggests a likely surge in Mac sales following the release of CS3. "Assuming 10 percent have upgraded to a new Mac over the last 2 quarters, we arrive at a figure of 300,000 (150,000 per quarter) Adobe creative pros that have purchased Intel-based Macs," the analyst wrote. "If we assume that our forward estimates are also based on 150,000 per quarter Macs that are sold to Adobe's creative pro customer base, we would come to a figure of 600,000 Macs sold to Adobe creative pros by the time CS3 ships in April of 2007. This leaves us with 2.4 million Adobe creative pro customers that are yet to move to a new Mac."

The analyst notes that if 24 percent of these customers upgrade to a new Mac within the first 2 quarters following the release of CS3 -- the June and September quarters -- industry watchers can expect 288,000 Macs sold to Adobe creative pros in each of those two quarters. "That would be 138,000 more Macs per quarter than we had been anticipating, as we had been using an estimate of 150,000 Macs per quarter to Adobe creative pros. 138,000 more Macs sold to Adobe customers per quarter would add 7 percent ($0.04) to our earnings-per-share estimate in both the June and September 2007 quarters."




by MacNN Staff

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Comments

  1. chas_m

    Joined:

    0

    And in other news:

    Water is wet.

    ""Current versions of Adobe's creative products, such as Creative Suite, Photoshop, etc., do not run at full efficiency on Intel-based Macs," wrote senior analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray in a research note obtained by MacNN."

    Really? Wow, I'm so glad that completely out-of-touch investors have someone like Gene Munster to bring them up to date ... only six months behind everyone else! Whew!

  1. kerryb

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    for investors dummy

    This info is for investors looking at or already have Apple stock some if not many of may not have a Mac and or any Adobe programs. Remember in your rush to criticize next time that not everyone lives the way you do.

  1. leamanc

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    12 people make this news?

    So 24 percent of 50 people said they would buy a new Mac when CS3 comes out. That amounts to a whopping 12 people.

    Buy that stock now before the sales rush!!!!

    Yeah, yeah I know, extrapolate the data, etc., etc. But sometimes it amazes me what little substance can pass for news.

  1. ppayne

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    50% of my cats surveyed..

    I agree, ast 250 customers and get back to us, please.

    I myself am totally biding my time for the revision to the Mac Pro that will no doubt arrive around that time. But I need a Mac Pro for Windows development for a new employee, so I guess I'll be buying one anyway.

  1. TiBookGuy

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Count us in..

    We are planning tto replae about 6 machines, right after the CS3 release. Like ppayne said, we are bidding our time, so that the machines will be the latest rev, right at the time we will need them most.

  1. UberFu

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    I was forced...

    into buying a Mactel recently as a 5-foot section of the roof crashed down upon my old gear_

    I ended up with a machine w/a 2Ghz core duo processor and 2GBs of RAM [this was the key] - which replaced an 800Mhz G4 20inch eMac_

    Everything that I use at this point is native except for the Macromedia/Adobe stuff_ But that is the bulk of what I use [photoshop - dreamweaver - flash - illustrator]

    Safari - iPhoto - Aperture don't seem any quicker that before_

    And the Macromedia/Adobe stuff is running about the same speed_

    Otherwise I was planning on waiting until after the CS3 upgrade_ The main thing for me at this point is that I have not lost performance [i haven't gained any either] - but also I do have some stability issues with Photoshop/Illustrator - they tend to lock up and crash on occasion similar to the old OS9 days [except I don't ahve to reboot the computer - just relaunch - thank the gods for OSX]

    Anyway - I( have to go with the first poster on this one - 'chas_m' and they're water is wet statement_

    'Cause if you have stock in Adobe or Apple [or stock period] and you're NOT watching the market you're just stupid_

    But hey everyone - it's now official 'cause senior analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray just now gets to it on his TO-DO list and I know as a stock investor that he's my Moses when it comes to investing my money_

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