Boot Camp expands audience, not sales?
updated 10:15 am EDT, Thu April 6, 2006
Boot Camp expands audience
Merrill Lynch says that Apple's Boot Camp technology could expand the the company's potential market, but is not quite convinced it will lead to more sales. Analyst Richard Farmer told clients that the software may be incremental in the near-term in terms of 'total addressable market' (TAM): "The boot camp capability cannot be a negative, but the question is how much of an incremental impact it could have," Farmer wrote in a research note obtained by MacNN. "We believe the incremental cost for an average user to run Windows XP on an Intel-based Mac is between $199-299 (XP home v.s. professional)." While Boot Camp mitigates the switching risk by allowing users to run more familiar and required applications, Apple's higher-priced product line is targetted toward most Window users. Merill has a 'neutral' rating on Apple stock.
"Apple's (TAM) should increase, though we are not yet convinced it will increase by an amount sufficient to dramatically change earnings power," the analyst said. "Our model suggests that for every point of PC market share gained, Apple generates more than $2 billion in incremental revenue."











At least one more sale
04/06, 10:26am reply
Well, it led to at least one more sale. I bought one last night to seee how it works. Although I'm not a new sale as I have been buying Macs for over 20 years.
Roehlstation
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Joined: Aug 2001
re: at least one more
04/06, 10:46am reply
Remember, market share isn't a measure of user base, but of sales. You helped Apple increase their market share even though you have been buying Macs since shortly after the Earth cooled. And since the average useable life of a Mac is almost twice as long as that of a PC, it isn't surprising to see that measures of user base are quite good for Apple compared to other IT companies.
If you eliminate the drone PCs bought by the thousands in offices around the world and just focus on machines bought by people who actually thought about the decision, then you see Apple's numbers even higher.
But anal ysts don't look at that, just sales. Watching Merill comment on Apple during recent years has totally convinced me to never invest with them because they have been wrong every step of the way.
And a point to MacNN. Apple's product line is not higher priced. It is very price competitive when compared to Dell for like hardware and blows all the competition away when you add the value of Apple's included software. Just because Apple don't sell boxes full of junk with a very limited feature set doesn't mean that the full featured machines they do offer are priced higher than similar machines in the market place. Just because a car costs more than a bicycle doesn't necessarily mean the car is high priced even both will get you from A to B. Eventually.
beeble
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Joined: Mar 2004
Did everyone forget?
04/06, 10:53am reply
I love how the financial experts start analyzing how a piece of BETA SOFTWARE will impact future growth for a company. HELLO! One more time in case you didn't hear me, BootCamp is a piece of beta software, a sneak preview of Leopard. We don't know what features will stay, leave, or be enhanced. Apple has never disappointed when it comes to their hardware and OS (ipod line is a different story). Stay tuned, financial prognosticators, you ain't seen nothing yet!
dimplemonkey
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Joined: Oct 2001
worx 4 me...
04/06, 11:07am reply
now I can run OpenOffice, IE pc for the sites I need, a few myopic pc programs that were not cross platform, etc... I have 2 pcs which can go on the block, giving me more cash to buy more macs...
bobolicious
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Joined: Aug 2002
Just one fewer excuse ...
04/06, 11:54am reply
The "but it won't run my [insert name of windows-ware]" is no longer an excuse for someone to NOT buy a Mac. They now should be able to run almost anything they can run on their PC, and have all the advantages of a Mac in the same box ... I'd think that this would actually lead to more transitions to Mac from PC, because if Apple continues to put together superior (or even just more visually appealling) hardware, certain users will buy it thinking that they will primarily use Windows, and find themselves using OSX.
chaaalie
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Joined: Sep 2002
$199-$299 premium?
04/06, 11:57am reply
am i missing something here? if someone would be swayed to an intel mac because of its ability to boot XP it follows that said person likely has an existing XP system. ergo they must have an XP install disc. microsofts draconian registration process aside i see no reason why they can't backup and de-authorize computer a, then install on the intel mac.
dashiel
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Joined: Sep 2001
Re: at least one more
04/06, 11:58am reply
Remember, market share isn't a measure of user base, but of sales. You helped Apple increase their market share even though you have been buying Macs since shortly after the Earth cooled. And since the average useable life of a Mac is almost twice as long as that of a PC, it isn't surprising to see that measures of user base are quite good for Apple compared to other IT companies.
Technically, I think you're trying to say is that Apple's marketshare is like double of what the numbers say, because people only buy half the number of machines. Right?
But marketshare is defined by whoever is releasing the numbers. So if the numbers are about sales, then its about sales. But if the numbers specifies 'users', then its about userbase, not sales. (To me, if someone has 4 macs, that's still just one user and should only count as much. Buying more, or macs over a period of time, should not increase market share at all.)
If you eliminate the drone PCs bought by the thousands in offices around the world and just focus on machines bought by people who actually thought about the decision, then you see Apple's numbers even higher.
Of course! That makes perfect sense. Let's take out of the equation any parts that don't emphasize apple's marketshare. So I say, let's take out of the equation all PCs bought by users because they needed to run Windows specific programs. If you do that, their share is even higher!
But anal ysts don't look at that, just sales.
Why should they look at that. Sales makes revenues which increases company value. What do you want them to look at, style? "Apple makes great looking computers. Though no one buys them, you should buy the stock." Yeah, that makes sense.
Apple's product line is not higher priced. It is very price competitive when compared to Dell for like hardware and blows all the competition away when you add the value of Apple's included software. Just because Apple don't sell boxes full of junk with a very limited feature set doesn't mean that the full featured machines they do offer are priced higher than similar machines in the market place. Just because a car costs more than a bicycle doesn't necessarily mean the car is high priced even both will get you from A to B. Eventually.
Man, I hate that freakin' argument. But what if you don't want all the stuff in a mac? What if you have no use for an iSight? Or most of Apple's iLife (sorry, most people don't make movies, edit audio, make web pages, etc). What if you don't want a fancy built-in LCD monitor? What if you don't do wireless? Or optical audio? Too bad, you get it all built-in regardless.
Oh, and there's also the slight problem that most budget PCs, even when speced out, have MORE features then the macs. If the $500 PC comes with 8 USB2 ports, and you're trying to uprgade it to an iMac spec, how do you
testudo
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Joined: Aug 2001
Pandora's Box
04/06, 12:03pm reply
So, why should developers bother with Mac-based applications anymore? Really...
Take Adobe Creative Suite or Studio 8... why should they bother with Universal development when the apps will run faster already on your Intel Mac with XP.
Same for games... why would anyone now develop a separate product for the limited Mac audience - just tell people to Boot in Windows on their Intel-based Macs.
Man, this is really going to open up a "box of worms" for the software industry and I bet there is going to be a lot of scrutinizing before the next major Mac OSX release.
Personally, it will finally allow me to use one machine. I only use the PC for specific accounting requirements and the occasional game. So, bring it on and save me a lot of desk and under-desk space.
DahlBryn
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Joined: Jan 2004
Ya right
04/06, 12:05pm reply
The chances of Merrill Grinch being right on anything Apple are about as high of me winning the lottery in the next 30 secs. Freakin analysts; I think they made a movie about them once.. Dumb and Dumber?
jarod
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Joined: Apr 2005
angry man?
04/06, 12:07pm reply
Wow, testiculo is getting reel angry here! I always had him pegged as a trans-osx-ual ie: he daily uses both OSes, windows and mac, but he's really starting to sound like a wintel troll here. Has something changed? Has he had an o-s-x-change?
Feathers
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Joined: Oct 1999