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\'Boot Camp\' to push Leopard, Mac sales

updated 02:30 pm EDT, Wed April 5, 2006

\'Boot Camp\' helps future

Analysts believe that Apple's Boot Camp technology, released as a public beta earlier today and expected to ship as part of Mac OS X Leopard, could boost sales of Apple's operating system and signal an opportunity for marketshare gains. "we believe AAPL could benefit from a significant OS upgrade cycle starting in its December quarter," UBS analyst Ben Reitzes told clients. "We believe this move positions Apple to gain share with customers reluctant to purchase Macs due to concerns over interoperability with Windows systems (currently over 90 percent of the PC market)." Echoing sentiments similar to that of other analysts, Reitzes also believes that Apple is well-positioned to benefit from Mac share gains due to the "iPod Multiplier Effect," though a recent survey showed a disconnect between the iPod and Apple brands.

In addition, Reitzes said the Boot Camp software could increase Mac sales in the longer term, although it acknowledged the near-term risks.

"We estimate fiscal December quarter unit growth of 29 percent year-over-year to 1.6 million units and year-long 2007 unit growth of 29 percent to 6 million Macs." The firm also believes that Boot Camp could help drive profitable software sales with a compelling Mac OS X Leopard upgrade.

The firm reiterated its 'buy' rating on the stock and has a $95 price target based on an EV/sales multiple of three times its fiscal year 2007 estimate, which is higher than Apple's "pre-bubble" multiple and its peers due to faster growth and higher margins.




by MacNN Staff

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Comments

  1. appleisgreat

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Keep Mac OS X

    The potential problem here is that most computer users are sloths about their computers. They don't take control and react to changing technology. Apple gets people in the door with promises of better security, ease of use, etc. but I worry that consumers will purchase a Mac, get frustrated with the change in the OS and just use Windows instead despite Mac OS X being lightyears ahead. Laziness about making a change could make this idea backfire.

  1. stobiemas

    Joined:

    0

    Steve Knows...

    This is great news. This is not a shot @ Microsoft- it's a shot @ other PC Makers. Microsoft still gets its share in this deal ($300 for XP Pro, fellas). Any PC manufacturer who targets the consumer should be worried. All the worry of software companies dropping titles- it's not going to happen. Why? sheer numbers. It would be insane for adobe to drop its profitable mac apps. To do so would financially irresponsible. This will appease those who want a Mac but were afraid to completely take the plunge. This is great news in the corporate world- I think the reverse may happen. Vendors are likely to jump aboard if Apple's Market share rises. BootCamp makes it easier than previous XP install attempts, but it's not for the average user. It took me most of the morning to get XP running with all the necessary drivers, install virus protection, etc. Actually, it underscores how difficult XP is to install and configure when compared to X. XP is still the same 'ole XP, running on a Mac or not. Viruses/ security threats are now front and center when running XP on a Mac. The good news is that XP can't natively read HFS+, so in a sense, OS X is still an island. OS X can read/write FAT 32 and read NTFS, however. Apple generates revenue from hardware, thus making this news welcome for AAPL shareholders. It also allows all of those PC users who wanted a taste (beyond iTunes) to see what Apple is all about. In the end, OS X will win more than lose... iLife is OS X only, after all :-D A few nice additions to BootCamp Vs.other installs- Automated Driver CD maker (nice), built-in speaker support (nicer), and my favorite- XP added to the startup disk in X and.. a Startup Disk chooser in XP's control panel! Wonderful!

  1. CaliforniaMac

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    re: keep mac os x

    There is a concern that many newbie users will boot into Windows to run Internet Explorer instead of downloading Firefox when they "hit the wall" with Safari/WebKit's incompatibilities --and that is only going to get worse when IE7 (which is not necessarily FireFox compatible) takes off, so I think Apple will start bundling Firefox and investing in those guys to make it IE7 compatible as quickly as possible.

    But in terms of keeping customers from living all day long in Windows, that is done by providing extra hardware features only available in OS X and by increasing the value proposition for the Mac OS X only software apps.

    Finally, the Big Deal now is for Apple to be able to convince existing Windows sites that they should take the risk to go with WindowsXp-compatible Macs when the time comes for them to buy Vista-compatible PCs. This means that Apple really needs to get serious about Windows compatibility --for example, doing everything in their power to shutdown those freeware database drivers being passed-off on unsuspecting Mac users as $30/copy ODBC drivers. That kind of thing can quickly destroy their credibility in business (again) and cost them Billions.

  1. beeble

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Concerns..

    Concerns about people buying a mac, running windows and not using MacOS X resulting in developers dropping OS X titles are unfounded. Remember that each sale of a mac that runs windows is still a sale of a mac _AND_ OS X. Those numbers will show up on the desks of companies like Adobe that Mac sales are through the roof and that Apple's marketshare is increasing dramatically.

    The only thing is, how much pent up demand for Vista is there. Will there be a PC sales boom that will drown out Apple's recent gains when Vista finally ships in 2032?

  1. Person Man

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Re: steve knows...

    What stobiemas said is right on target. :)

    Hi Chris!

  1. jimmijam

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    If OS X could write NTFS

    If only OS X could write NTFS....then the Mac side of the drive could fix the Win side of the drive in an emergency. "When your Windows install inevitably gets hosed, simply restart in OS X and run iFixXP or iFixVista." And Apple could make a cheeky ad campaign using a Siamese twin metaphor.

  1. kw99

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Won't push Leopard sales

    I agree with most of this except,

    "could boost sales of Apple's operating system"

    That does not make sense. The only group of Mac users who would "upgrade" to Leopard to get a "non-Beta" version of Boot Camp are the current Intel Mac purchasers. That is a very small faction now, and will still be relatively small when Leopard is released.

    PPC Mac users can't use Boot Camp, so although many will upgrade to Leopard, it won't be for that reason. So Boot Camp's impact on shrink-wrapped Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard sales will be minor.

    However, Boot Camp will definitely have a big positive impact on new Mac sales as the Intel Mac roll-out continues through the rest of this year. I think the actual effect will be more psychological. Boot Camp removes the last excuse for would-be Mac buyers who are afraid of their real or perceived dependence on Windows. Once they start up their new Mac, and see and use Mac OS X for the first time, many will never actually bother with Boot Camp (unless their need for Windows is "real"). Apple's strategy to right on target.

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