04/05/2006, 2:30pm, EDT
Wednesday, April 5th
'Boot Camp' to push Leopard, Mac sales
In addition, Reitzes said the Boot Camp software could increase Mac sales in the longer term, although it acknowledged the near-term risks.
"We estimate fiscal December quarter unit growth of 29 percent year-over-year to 1.6 million units and year-long 2007 unit growth of 29 percent to 6 million Macs." The firm also believes that Boot Camp could help drive profitable software sales with a compelling Mac OS X Leopard upgrade.
The firm reiterated its 'buy' rating on the stock and has a $95 price target based on an EV/sales multiple of three times its fiscal year 2007 estimate, which is higher than Apple's "pre-bubble" multiple and its peers due to faster growth and higher margins.
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But in terms of keeping customers from living all day long in Windows, that is done by providing extra hardware features only available in OS X and by increasing the value proposition for the Mac OS X only software apps.
Finally, the Big Deal now is for Apple to be able to convince existing Windows sites that they should take the risk to go with WindowsXp-compatible Macs when the time comes for them to buy Vista-compatible PCs. This means that Apple really needs to get serious about Windows compatibility --for example, doing everything in their power to shutdown those freeware database drivers being passed-off on unsuspecting Mac users as $30/copy ODBC drivers. That kind of thing can quickly destroy their credibility in business (again) and cost them Billions.
The only thing is, how much pent up demand for Vista is there. Will there be a PC sales boom that will drown out Apple's recent gains when Vista finally ships in 2032?
Hi Chris!
"could boost sales of Apple's operating system"
That does not make sense. The only group of Mac users who would "upgrade" to Leopard to get a "non-Beta" version of Boot Camp are the current Intel Mac purchasers. That is a very small faction now, and will still be relatively small when Leopard is released.
PPC Mac users can't use Boot Camp, so although many will upgrade to Leopard, it won't be for that reason. So Boot Camp's impact on shrink-wrapped Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard sales will be minor.
However, Boot Camp will definitely have a big positive impact on new Mac sales as the Intel Mac roll-out continues through the rest of this year. I think the actual effect will be more psychological. Boot Camp removes the last excuse for would-be Mac buyers who are afraid of their real or perceived dependence on Windows. Once they start up their new Mac, and see and use Mac OS X for the first time, many will never actually bother with Boot Camp (unless their need for Windows is "real"). Apple's strategy to right on target.