Analyst affirms $103 target for AAPL

Piper Jaffray today said it viewed the weakness in Apple stock--following record earnings but a "disappointing" Q2 outlook--as a buying opportunity, holding steady on its end-of-2006 price target of $103, despite cuts by other analysts. "We would be buyers of AAPL shares on the pullback today as we believe March quarter guidance will prove to be conservative given that Apple's strategic plan, competitive position, new product roadmap, and market opportunity, remain unchanged." Acknowledging the sales slow down in late December as users waited for the new Intel-based Macs, analyst Gene Munster said his own research showed the Intel slowdown in December "was a reality, but muted." It expects the that Apple's second fiscal quarter ending in March will benefit from the demand around the new Intel-based MacBook Pro, which it says should more than offset the impact of customers waiting for Intel-based PowerMac and iBooks.

Echoing the growing sentiment of "conservative guidance," the firm set its revenue estimate for March at 8 percent higher than Apple's own guidance, saying that Apple's estimates were primarily based on the uncertainty regarding Mac sales prior to shipment of the remaining Intel-based Macs.

"We believe this is a legitimate reason for a conservative outlook, but we would also note that Apple has exceeded its stated revenue guidance by an average of 12 percent for the last 3 quarters."

The company believes that 2006 will see both iPod growth as well as Mac market share gains, resulting in an earnings growth during 2006 of more than 25 percent. Munster also expects Apple to look to other markets, such as mobile phones and consumer electronic extertainment devices by late 2006, according to the research report.

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