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Mac sales to slump in 2006?

updated 06:25 pm EST, Thu January 12, 2006

Mac sales to slump?

Analyst Mark Stahlman today of Caris and Company reiterated an "above average" rating on Apple, but for the company. The analyst noted concerns based on "less-than-exciting Mac sales growth as Apple transitions to Intel processors." Stahlman raised earnings-per-share estimates for fiscal years 2006 and 2007 to $2.59 and $3.06, respectively, from $1.91 and $2.33, according to a report from Forbes.com. Apple's updated guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2006 displays a revenue split of two to one in favor of iPods over Macs, compared to "roughly even" sales in 2005.

"With perhaps 135 percent year-over-year sales growth for iPods and only 5 percent for Macs in the quarter, Apple's computer sales momentum is waning," the analyst said.

While Apple recently unveiled its new Intel-based MacBook Pro notebooks and iMac desktop models at the Expo, "Intel's own roadmap implies that much of the 'good stuff' won't appear until the end of calendar 2006, when next-generation 'Conroe' and 'Merom' are due to ship in volume," according to Stahlman.

The analyst is also concerned that a late-2006 deployment of new Macs will coincide with Microsoft's release of its latest Windows operating system, Vista, "potentially drowning out their significance."

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) could also prove to be a tough competitor, according to Stahlman.

"As impressive as the computer-intensive benchmarks offered by Apple might be, there is no way to avoid the fact that Intel's Core Duo processor is a 32-bit engine that is fundamentally obsolete in a 64-bit x86 world. As AMD ramps to ship its dual-core 64-bit notebook CPU's [...] we believe Apple may lose some of its premium luster," Stahlman said.




by MacNN Staff

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Comments

  1. Horsepoo!!!

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    IT definitely ain't...

    IT definitely ain't his field. Stahlman doesn't seem to understand that people don't know or care what a 64-bit processor is.

    If 64-bit was so important, Apple's sales would have gone through the roof when they introed the G5. It didn't.

  1. trevc

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Slump?

    I already know of a dozen people personally who are buying a new laptop as they were waiting for the G5 Laptop which never came ... how many others would there be?

    I am already buying the new iMac for my second mac and give my 3 month old iMac to my kids and it just seems that there'll be a whole bunch of people buying adn doing this ... and what if they come out with a new tablet like the rumors say and when they upgrade the iBook it'll prompt another wave of sales and when they update the powerMac's .... yet another wave of sales.

    Don't know about a slump!!

  1. MacScientist

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    The sky is falling.

    We must go and tell the King.

  1. Ashari

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Slump!? This guy is nuts!

    Paraphrasing Jobs: "If you want one, you better order one now!"

    Very true. These MacBook Pro's are going to sell like the proverbial "hotcakes". Apple isn't going to be able to make enough of them.

    I also think we're going to see an increase in iMac sales, as well... but only time will tell.

  1. CaliforniaMac

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    64-bit laptops r4 SWEs

    The only users who need 64-bit laptops are Software Engineers (who are developing 64-bit software for deployment on 64-bit desktop machines) and Scientists (who need to run memory and compute intensive simulations/models in the field). These market segments are too small to be of any real financial consequence, so I wouldn't sweat the MacBookPro being "only" 32-bit.

    Now, as far as the new iMac "only" being 32-bit, I can't fathom s******* up its gorgeous design so that it can accomodate more than 4GB worth of RAM DIMMs, especially when there is no real consumer-oriented software (for any operating system) that exploits a 64-bit address space and integer size.

    So you see this controversy is about future Apple/Intel desktop machines vs. future desktop machines using Windows Vista and 64-bit AMD chips. The question is whether or not Apple/Intel will be able to deliver desktop systems with dual-core 64-bit chips, huge memory capacity running OS-X before customers make the jump from their current 32-bit XP machines to the next generation 64-bit Vista machines (thereby enabling Apple to capture some of that market). The answer is obvious, though asking the question does sell newspapers (er, web-hits) though...

  1. ClevelandAdv

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    64 bit is a non-issue

    In order to have a 64 bit system do you any good you need a 64 bit porcessor, 64 bit OS and 64 bit Apps, of which there are none in the Wintel world right now, and that combination will not be available until around 2007. I think that this iteration of the MacBook Pro will be replaced by then and Apple will have sold a whole mess of them. The concern I have about the Mactel macs is weather there will be a good way to run windows on them as that will have a larger impact on hardware sales.

  1. jarod

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Who is this IDIOT?

    Oh...just another ANAList.

    Get back in your hole you dumbass.

  1. cebritt

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Pent up demand

    There are a lot of Mac users who have been waiting to buy a new Mac and now that the Intels have arrived early, the floodgates will open. I've been hanging on to my pokey old 450MHz CRT iMac, waiting for an Intel mini Mac or iBook but this new iMac is hard to resist...

  1. LouZer

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Uhoh!

    Someone dared say something negative about apple! Must be a troll/idiot analyst/columnist who doesn't know what he's talking about!

    Oh, and I like how, all of a sudden, 64-bit computers mean nothing. When the G5 came out, and then Tiger, it was all "Hey, Apple's got the lead in 64-bit computers, while MS is so far behind!!!". Now its "Its not important!" I guess its not about reality, just about what Apple does that determines whether something's important (i.e. "iPod video is pointless, no one wants to watch videos on the iPod" becomes "Wow! Apple's shown the others that video on the small screen is a great idea! And they've done it better then everyone else!"

    Finally, just because you know a dozen people who've been waiting for a G5 laptop doesn't "incrediible sales" make. Its not a real large sample, statistically. And for everyone who's been waiting for the intels to come about, there's someone who's going to wait for all the version 1 idiosyuncroncies to be ironed out before shelling out $$$ for one of these things (h***, if it was a mini, sure, what's $500. But I'm not spending $2000 on a new laptop that might be flaky and lacking support of important software just to be on the so-called cutting edge). Oh, and let's not forget that whole group of people who've been buying G4/G5 macs the past year to make sure they've got a backward compatible system for the coming years. Not everyone runs software that'll run on these new systems.

  1. ZinkDifferent

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Yawn...

    I am certain, now, that the main qualification to be an 'analyst' is to be as clueless as possible about the market you spout off about.

    "Hey, we need an analysis of the Apple market. Let's get Rich. His specialty is pork and natural resources. He'll do..."

    "What about an analyst for the 'salted pork' market? Oh, I know, let's get bill - he really understands the computer industry"

    Seriously, is there some kind of race for who can 'project' the most useless and inane projection, especially right after a terrain altering product launch? I mean, these guys are, supposedly being paid to make forward looking statements. So far, every single one of them has been 99% wrong, 100% of the time... yet, they still hold down a job.

    Anyway, I would take this analysis as a seal of approval and almost as an assurance that Apple will have skyrocketing Mac sales in 2006. It's quite clear that Mr. Jobs knows how to run a business... and these monkeys do not.

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