"...lacks an economic ecosystem"?

Gee whiz - isn't that true of ANY product? The iPod will have to adapt and grow like every other product.*

*except the paper clip...but who's got brand-domination of the paper clip!?

what ecosystem is going to outevolve the iPod? the same stagnant cesspool of mediocrity which the iPod waded into in 2001 and proceeded to smack silly?

If there's any company that can out-innovate a collective of companies, it's Apple. It maybe a small entity compared to Microsoft, Dell and HP (okay HP's an exception since do they sell iPods) but Apple has consistently led the industry in innovation. Apple is a proverbial risk-taker and a survivor at that. Many a company would be so jealous to be called the "comeback kid" because not many can survive what Apple's gone through in its existence. Do these analysts think Apple will let slip their dominant position in the online music business that easily?

I'm beginning to wonder how old these so-called financial experts are. If they were there during Apple's darkest days and saw how the company saw the light, they wouldn't be so ill-informed as to make callous remarks on Apple's future.

I agree with cmoney's "moot point" comment -- the non-iPod "ecosystem" is in effect a proving-ground for features people want. If any of those features start to gain momentum (and fit in with their vision), you can bet apple will add them to the iPod. [Like the 'music rental' model -- if it looks like people dig that, they could add it to the iTMS...]

If anything, Apple benefits from the disparity among the rest of the market... anything non-standard (marketing model, connectors, etc.) makes the iPod's standards that much more appealing.

The hardware/iTunes link is a HUGE selling point. All the rest have their own versions which are clunkier--and iTunes has its own 'ecosystem' for screen savers, scripts, iMixes, and now mobile phones--all areas where we can customize & tweak. And don't forget the huge music industry -- you can buy any CD you want and easily put it on your iPod; you're not ONLY stuck with iTunes. That's one helluvan ecosystem.

There are a few things Apple could do to kill the beautiful interoperability & momentum they have: --over-designing iTunes with bloat, so it's not easy & elegant any more. Podcasts are verging on that, if you ask me... --changing the dock connector. (If they change it, BMW and Griffin and the rest would have an opportunity to re-evaluate their decisions... And if you think of Apple's display connectors fiascos over the years, the precendent has been set. --getting too arrogant and not evolving the iPod, both physically in their hardware, and philsophically in people's attitudes towards buying, organizing, and listening to music.

But there's always room for improvement--Shuffle with an LCD display and fewer flailing cords, for one. Or more imports from Europe and Japan in the iTMS.

seems like there is a bull market in being the one who correctly predicted the demise of the iPod.

This is like all those fools who keep predicting that Jesus will come any day now. And one of these days, maybe one of them will be right. But I doubt it.

"Unless Apple updates the iPod, the competition is going to catch up."

What are you talking about? What features does the iPod have that the competition needs to catch up on? Very early in the game they were outdoing the iPod in terms of storage capacity, color screen, camera, voice recorder, AM/FM radio.

The things they haven't been able to duplicate is the design elegance, ease of use, and iTunes integration. So if it's the list of "features" you are looking at, you should have moved from an iPod a long time ago. I'm not going to give you any heat. Have fun.

He uses the word ecosystem and yet does not understand what it means. The iPod is the only player with a thriving ecosystem of third-party addons. Part of the reason for that is that Apple does not include every bloody feature people would ever want.

The competitors should be learning that lesson from the iPod, not the other way around.

If a product is well designed and works well you don't need to keep changing it and adding to it. Its like reinventing the wheel, just look at the Technics 1200 Turntable it has been around for over 25 years and has gone under little change and is regarded has the best turn table on the market. Walkman's and Discman's changed very little from their original designs - other then getting smaller and using less power.

If something works well and serves its purpose you don't need to keep redesigning it. This is what all the other MP3 companies don't understand - "focus on the basics - get those down pat before moving on". The iPod will get better and new features will be added but the basics that made it successful will always be at its core

I like to look at it from the kitchen - there are so many electric gadgets to cut this, peel that, mix this, grate that - but the basic tools that have been around for hundreds of years still work best. The iPod could just be the potato peeler of the 21st century.

My problem with the quote is that, while its true that many more companies working together can in fact come up with more ideas then one company on its own. But the other companies aren't working together. Rio is not working with creative and Sandisk and the rest, joining forces and doling out work. They are working independently. Its not like Rio came up with an idea of integrating an FM tuner and that saved the time and effort of the others to do the same. They all had to design it into their system.

My point is that the only common ground on these systems is Windows Media vs. iTunes MS. Outside that, they're all in the same playing field, trying to outdo the others. Sure, no one can update the iPod but Apple. But no one can update the Creative player except Creative. No one can update the Rio players except Rio. How is this different?

BTW, my sister bought a Creative Zen player over the weekend (she really wanted one with an FM tuner in it for some reason). And I must say, its small. But its also hard to navigate (its got this funky scroll wheel on it that's hard not to click while you're scrolling). And it could only auto-find 4 FM stations in my area (between Baltimore and Washington, I think there's more than four in the area).

And let me tell you, Windows Media Player sucks as a CD-cataloging and syncing program. And their CD database sucks. I put in three Sinatra CDs, and while they were found, one matched the song titles by an offset of three (so song one listed the title of song 4, 2 showed 5's title, etc). Another had them all mixed up. I changed the album before ripping on one of them, and when it ripped, it put the names on them in the wrong order again. And then renaming them didn't rename the files. So if you're looking for the files, you're screwed. Man, I knew it was bad, but really, this is media player 10 (5+ years ago I remember trying it, but knew it wasn't going to be good when my 16 Greatest Hits album I put in there became populated with all of 15 titles. Hmmm).

Microsoft lacks "economic ecosystem" for Windows July 25, 1995

Microsoft will inevitably lose its hold on the operating system market, as competitors slowly bring their features up to par with Windows, and leverage their "economic ecosystem," says NotSoFastCompany. While Windows, like most Microsoft products, is a "closed" platform, Microsoft's competitors are "a set of companies, cooperating and competing at once, that together deliver a product or service by providing different components that share some critical capabilities." Windows "has not changed much since its debut four years ago," and "no one can improve on Windows except Microsoft." A so-called ecosystem is better than a single product "because its collective of competitors can explore and invest in many more ideas than any single company can muster," the article explains.

So if something like this was written years ago as MS got into high gear selling Windows, the author would be laughed off the planet. Same is true today re the iPod.

here: john.sviokla@diamondcluster.com

or as I like to refer to him as:

SHILLMASTERFLASH

I've said it before and Vickys Box says it hear and I'll say it again.

All the third party accessories that work for iPod, DON'T WORK WITH ANY OTHER PLAYER!

Show me a third party device for other music players. I saw a PC guy with some RIO or something, and he was telling me how tough it was to get music on it. Until he got one that took a USB memory stick. Now he puts his music on the memory stick and plugs it into his device. How stupid and annoying.

iPods will rule for a long, long time. Now with Podcasts booming, it's just another reason to get an iPod.

example of an ecosystem is the Microsoft monopoly, in which dozens of competing hardware vendors have no way to differentiate themselves because they

1- are locked into certain types of chipsets or processors, as supported by Windows, and 2- are all required provide their hardware with the same Microsoft proprietary Windows preinstalled

That doesn't sound like much of an ecosystem.

I love how all these guys say the lack of FM Radio is what will bring the iPod down.

The reason I HAVE an iPod is because I don't want to listen to FM Radio most of the time. And if you put your iPod in your car, there is already a radio there if you want it.

Not quite sure what these bozos talk about when they mention a lack of ecosystem, but as fars as I'm concerned, the iPod is the ONLY music player with any kind of ecosystem supporting it -- never mind the huge market of third party solutions (which none of the other players can boast about), but nearly every single car manufacturer out there now supports an iPod option (and I don't see any iRiver, or Zen options), and now we are starting to see phones integrate iPod technology (calling it iTunes).

All the while, the iPod has *EVOLVED* -- which might give the appearance of not having changed to 'analysts' that don't have one. While the basic functionality is the same (it playes music), the design, components, and practical functionality has been updated, streamlined, enhanced and updated to continue to provide new features.

But the major selling point is that the combination iPod/iTunes "Just Works', which can't be said for any of the competitors.

Lastly, certainly Apple's iPod will at one point weaken, and lose market importance -- so did the walkman.... after 20 years.

Once again, analysts, shooting their mouths off.. then again, why trust someone calling themselves an 'analyst', but working out of a cubicle at near minimum wage.

ZinkDifferent

Well, we ca all rest easy now - you can peruse the other columns by the author of this article, and discover what an idiot he is:

http://www.sviokla.com/

- iPod has no ecosystem - Paypal was a big mistake for eBay etc..

Check out DiamondCluster.com, the guy's consulting firm, which, I might add, offers a podcast :-)

ZinkDifferent

Cracker, Pleeeez.

Its a bit idiotic for them to say The iPod "has not changed much since its debut four years ago" in the same article that syas it will start losing its hold on the digital player market. If no one has been able to even touch the ipod in terms of popularity and user base numbers, AND IT HASNT CHANGED IN 4 YEARS, and everyone else keeps coming out with more and more changes ,useless non-selling designs multiple times ever since 4 years ago, that should tell you something! Yah of course nothing lasts for ever, but Apple has the MIND-HOLD on people. iPod is synonymous with digital muisic player. So if even the iPod doesn't have drastic change, the minds of consumers will take care of the rest. its the stronghol don the consumer mind that matters.

I would like to start by saying I love Apple, I have five of them, I also have an iPod and love it. I would like to offer an alternative opinion on this piece, I think what this guy is saying is that in the past closed systems have failed to work in the long term. Look at betamax, a better system but ruined because one company would not licence the technology. Why can't Apple iPods work with other music services like Napster? You would not like buying a DVD film that could only be run with Toshiba DVD players, so why buy an mp3 with no choice of music services. I would just like to also say this is one persons opinion, there is no facts mentioned in the case, so lets just wait and see. Personally I think Apple will open the iPod up eventually so any service could be used.

the mind. If there was an iMovie store that only sold movies that would play on an Apple iDVD player, why yes indeed people would buy the movie if they had an iDVD player. It's not the movie, it's the DRM wrapped around the movie that makes it specific to the player. If CryMeAniRiver movie store sold online movies, their player would probably be some WiMP variety DVD player that would play movies only in that DRM wrapper. The movie doesn't change, the DRM does. Are there multiple versions of Britney's latest song, 1 for each player? Nope. Movies are no different.

> Why can't Apple iPods work with other music services like Napster?

Because it's not about Apple "making" the iPod play the format Napster uses (which is WMA I believe), but rather it is Microsoft *allowing* apple access to the WMA decoder technology, which hasn't happened up to this point.

And then Napster has to *allow* apple access to their copy protection and license data so the WMA files will even open on the iPod.

And then Apple would have to get permission from ALL of the other music stores. Thats a ton of money, just so a few people can play WMA files purchased from services OTHER than iTunes. Yeah, that sounds like a good idea :P

Bring your mp3s into iTunes then to your iPod.

Yes, Mr. Svolkla. Someday... Maybe not in my generation, maybe not in children's generation, nor my children's children's... but...... someday.

Alright, alright. So what's the big.

I am surprised so many folks here are taking this guy so seriously. (You know who you are.) We should all just have a laugh at this guy and his piece. Maybe throw in a few drops of pity if you wish. But he is certainly not worth such protracted period under the sun. It seems worthless to analyze his worthless analysis.

Oops. Sorry about that last sentence ;-)

The reason I HAVE an iPod is because I don't want to listen to FM Radio most of the time. And if you put your iPod in your car, there is already a radio there if you want it.

Well, MOST of the time, you're fine. But what about the times you DO want to listen to FM radio (me, its AM radio). Then you got to get something else. Why not the iPod? The arguments against AM/FM radio are stupid in just the sense of "we don't need it". Well, how come there's such a clamoring for it, then???

Because it's not about Apple "making" the iPod play the format Napster uses (which is WMA I believe), but rather it is Microsoft *allowing* apple access to the WMA decoder technology, which hasn't happened up to this point.

Um, no. Its not about MS "allowing" Apple access, since they want everyone to license their tech, Apple included (MS licenses, Apple holds things for themselves, which is why MS has the market share on everything, and Apple doesn't). Just like when people asked whether MacTel could run windows, people said "Sure, what does MS care, they'll get another sale".

Apple is the one who refuses to add in the ability, for they see loss of control.

You know, Sony introduced the Walkman about ten years before I was old enough to really want one. But even then, I still wanted a Sony because of the quality. I think Apple in a lot of ways has that Sony Walkman effect going on - yes, there are and will be other music players, but a lot of people are still going to want the original, with the better name, and the quality that goes with the name.

I have read nothing but postitive reports about Apple surmounting over the past 6monts; especially, this week . . . Businessweek's vote was 25% in favor of Apple being most innovative.

I think this is just another one of those "innovative authors" trying to sound like they know something by . . . .going against the grain.

This rubs me the wrong way for sure.

I can't for the life of me conceive of what the writer is thinking. He's wrong on every single point!

Those of you requesting iPod "updates"... What exactly do you need in a music player that the iPod is not providing?

I have many technophobe and techno-illiterate friends and relatives who have iPods and use them and love them. Two of these folks had "other" players first and left them in a desk drawer out of frustration.

iPods, whether or not they have the "best" features have the only one that matters -- iTunes.