digital music/video
05/24/2005, 9:20pm, EDT
Tuesday, May 24th
Jobs bets Yahoo! will raise prices in 5 months
Steve Jobs is betting that Yahoo! will soon raise prices on its online music service launched earlier this month. In early May, Yahoo! debuted a new subscription music service which starts at $60 per year for unlimited music service, which "rents" an unlimited number of songs to users as long as they pay their monthly subscription fee. According to The Wall Street Journal, Jobs said that Yahoo is charging "substantially" below its costs and will likely increase the price in the coming months. "Mr. Jobs then claimed Apple employees had a betting pool on when Yahoo would raise the $5-a-month rate, with Mr. Jobs putting his money on five months....Mr. Jobs proclaimed himself a solid believer in the 'halo effect' of iPod sales fueling Mac sales, pointing to strong growth in recent quarters. Asked when Apple would reach a 10% market share – up from the low single digits -- he said he didn't know. But he added that 'it's possible … if people learn about our products, many of them choose them.'" [subscription required]
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Other story tags: digital music/video
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Just because Job said that, I am willing to put money down that Yahoo! will not raise price but in the next 5 months.
Here's why: logically, Y! should raise its price after it crushes the likes of Napster. I mean, what does Napster (and its ilks) offer that Y! does not? Bigger library? Better quality of audio? Integration into Yahoo? Superior application (written from scratch, support AAC, MP3, WMA, FLAC, etc? None of the above.
Factors against Y! raising its price: iTunes is still the #1 music store. Google will come onto the music scene sooner or later. No point in raising its price, then Google comes in, and then having to lower it to compete. Y! may bundle it into the SBC plan, for example, giving it control of the pipeline and the content.
Too many factors to call it one way or another for now.
Remember how you guys were saying that Apple is doomed and that they need to open up Fairplay to survive two quarters ago? Don't quit your day jobs as you guys make lousy fortune tellers.
So was Steve and so are you too.
My money says five months ;)
Apple would be worried if iTunes Music Store was actually playing by the same rules as its so-called "competition." It's not. iTunes has a lock on its users because its users use iPods.
Apple will only care if users start to buy non-iPod devices just so they can use these subscription services. And amazingly enough, most consumers base their music player buying decision on the quality of the music player, not on which music download service is compatible.
That means that Yahoo! (and Napster and Real) are depending more on Creative and the other non-iPod makers being successful against Apple's iPod than on any imagined direct competition with iTunes Music Store. And that, is called being in a bad position.
On the other hand, Apple controls its own success when it comes to music. I think Steve Jobs has earned to right to show some "arrogance" (or perhaps "pride" would be a better word) regarding what Apple has accomplished here.