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iPod clones, iTunes Video Store coming?

updated 08:35 am EDT, Mon May 9, 2005

iTunes Video Store?

Industry pundit Robert Cringely says desite the success of the iPod, Apple's and perhaps an iTunes Video Store: "The Year of HD is dependent on 10.4 and its H.264 video codec that I believe will be at the heart of an Apple HD video download service to be announced shortly... Ultimately, what Apple wants to do is make its money through iTunes, where the profit margins are better in the long term and the system is easily scalable. It was necessary to create the iPod platform to make this happen. But downward price pressures will eventually hurt iPod profit margins and affect Apple's stock price, so the trick is to know when to switch the business from being a mix of hardware and software to one that is software-only. That switch, which I believe to be inevitable, will happen shortly after Apple begins to license iPod clones."

by MacNN Staff

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Grrr
Grizzled Veteran

Joined: Jun 2001

0

05/09, 09:08am | report spam | close Reply |
Sheesh

Another full of c*** article Macnn somehow saw fit to slap on their front page.. WHY!??

HowieDI2
Fresh-Faced Recruit

Joined: Aug 2002

0

05/09, 09:22am | report spam | close Reply |
I just don't understand.

Why do all of these "analysts" insist that Apple must exit the computer business and only sell software?

tamman
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Joined: May 2005

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05/09, 09:37am | report spam | close Reply |
Grrr

Have you even read Cringley before?? He gave a pretty accurate prediction for Carly Fiorina at HP at the time of the Compaq merger and has been accurate on a number of other fronts. Unlike a host of windows hugging PC writers and Mac fanatics, he has taken a rather unbiased look at the tech world and given his opinion. It is nothing more than that, and hardly worth berating MacNN for posting it.

winterlandia
Forum Regular

Joined: May 2001

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05/09, 10:12am | report spam | close Reply |
Just an opinion

Cringely has been around forever and actually is quite unbiased. He did the NERDS documentaries for PBS on the beginnings of Apple and MS which speak for themselves. He is far from a hack and is generally has insight that nobody else does since he actually seems to know everyone in the industry. Go read all the columns he's written before-- they're very interesting. He's not always right but he's always got a fascinating theory or two.

testudo
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Joined: Aug 2001

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05/09, 10:34am | report spam | close Reply |
Re: i just don't

Why do all of these "analysts" insist that Apple must exit the computer business and only sell software?

Because they suck at making computers. They don't market them. They don't make them to sell in quantity (i.e. cheap), they don't make them to fill more than niche markets (and then overprice them for those markets). The only computer Apple sells that I would call a 'switchers' computer is the mini, because it let's you bring your own monitor, and its fairly cheap. Its also fairly underpowered (its cheap, what do you expect), which isn't going to draw rave reviews for its performance (yeah, I know, who cares, it looks nice, and it'll be a great media-center hub, once you add another $500-$1000 worth of software/hardware). They have the lovely stupid habit of crippling their low and mid-range computers to force people who need a specific feature to buy high-end. Is there any reason that dual-monitor support is disabled in the iMac or iBook other than for Apple to say "Hey, that's a pro feature, you need to spend another $500 and get a Powerbook instead, who cares if there's nothing else in the powerbook you want"? No (esp. since there's a hack that gets it to work, in most cases). Have you ever heard of a PC manufacturer doing something like this? Do you think Dell would put a motherboard in their 3000 line that had an AGP slot, but s******* up the BIOS to disable it, telling customers "You want a replaceable graphics card, you need to buy at least this." (sure, they sell computers without the AGP slot, but cheap mobo in a cheap computer, you expect that. Apple's video cards support the feature, its just being disabled).

BTW, Tiger reportedly adds support (if you're monitor and card can handle it) to rotate your monitors. People are claiming this is great. Me, I see it as an accident, that Apple didn't realize the feature was in the drivers, and that 10.4.1 will disable this feature. They've never liked people computing in any way they don't envision.

adammull
Fresh-Faced Recruit

Joined: Mar 2004

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05/09, 10:46am | report spam | close Reply |
Re: You're an idiot

Because they suck at making computers. They don't market them. They don't make them to sell in quantity (i.e. cheap), they don't make them to fill more than niche markets (and then overprice them for those markets). The only computer Apple sells that I would call a 'switchers' computer is the mini, because it let's you bring your own monitor, and its fairly cheap. Its also fairly underpowered (its cheap, what do you expect), which isn't going to draw rave reviews for its performance (yeah, I know, who cares, it looks nice, and it'll be a great media-center hub, once you add another $500-$1000 worth of software/hardware). They have the lovely stupid habit of crippling their low and mid-range computers to force people who need a specific feature to buy high-end. Is there any reason that dual-monitor support is disabled in the iMac or iBook other than for Apple to say "Hey, that's a pro feature, you need to spend another $500 and get a Powerbook instead, who cares if there's nothing else in the powerbook you want"? No (esp. since there's a hack that gets it to work, in most cases). Have you ever heard of a PC manufacturer doing something like this? Do you think Dell would put a motherboard in their 3000 line that had an AGP slot, but s******* up the BIOS to disable it, telling customers "You want a replaceable graphics card, you need to buy at least this." (sure, they sell computers without the AGP slot, but cheap mobo in a cheap computer, you expect that. Apple's video cards support the feature, its just being disabled).

BTW, Tiger reportedly adds support (if you're monitor and card can handle it) to rotate your monitors. People are claiming this is great. Me, I see it as an accident, that Apple didn't realize the feature was in the drivers, and that 10.4.1 will disable this feature. They've never liked people computing in any way they don't envision.

Why do people like you even read this board?

83caddy16v
Forum Regular

Joined: Sep 2000

0

05/09, 10:55am | report spam | close Reply |
video iTunes

video would be interesting -- perhaps a video iPod would become a reality.

it would be nice to be able to download missed episodes of TV shows, such as LOST or Battlestar Galatica, etc. Folks I've spoken with use something called Bit Torent to do that now.

Laurence
Mac Enthusiast

Joined: Mar 1999

0

05/09, 10:57am | report spam | close Reply |
No video store soon...

There is no way that they will open a video store. Since this is the year of HD they would have to have HD videos available and the smallest you are going to get a standard 100 minute movie in HD quality is around 4GB. The market for customers that have the bandwidth to download 4GB per movie is very small and would never be profitable for Apple or anyone else. Standard Def is possible, but even with H.264 it still would take around 600MB/movie and although that is more reasonable it would still be impossible for most people to download on a regular basis.

Tdassel
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Joined: Apr 2004

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05/09, 11:00am | report spam | close Reply |
Clones ?

Where did I hear that before ? Rebranded Ipods - Yes Clones - No. I doubt that Apple will give others the right to produce Ipod clones, even if the clones were restricted to only buy music from the itunes store like it is at present, because they don't eran money from selling music, but from selling ipods. I woul drather think that Apple would license the ability to supply music to ipods to other music stores. Right now they can't ( all major ones only sell some MS specific c*** ) but it would make sense to them, because the Ipod owners out there are the majority and have a huge market share. With the ever greedy Music industry and the tendency to restrict the usage of even the bought music more and more I guess that Apple would rather drop selling music and sell that business to others then cutting ipod sales by giving away a license for cloning them. Nobody from the music industry saw or anticipated Apples success with the Itunes store and selling music over the internet, and after the current success they will rather try to get Apple out of the business and make the money themselves ( or be stupid and rather support MS than Apple ). So the purpose of the store was to have a platform to sell music to ipod owners. Concentrating on making and selling ipods and the itunes software and let others run the stores sounds like logic to me.

Greetings

Thomas

ApeInTheShell
Senior User

Joined: Nov 2002

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05/09, 11:07am | report spam | close Reply |
An idiot?

Analysts have been predicting Apple should exit the hardware market and go strictly software for years. Yet every year Apple releases something that drops their jaws. Look how many gushing reviews there were for the iMac G5 and Mac OS X Tiger. Apple will not port Mac OS X to Mac clones or open up the iPod until they at least hit 40-50% marketshare. Now the iTMS might work for movies because it has quicktime trailers and music videos. I am just not seeing the connection between music and movies for now. There would need to be a video iPod which will not debut this year. I find it hilarious that now people in the pc world are crying, "Stop! stop! that's a monopoly!"

aristotles
Grizzled Veteran

Joined: Jul 2004

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05/09, 12:07pm | report spam | close Reply |
Yeah, you are an idiot

"BTW, Tiger reportedly adds support (if you're monitor and card can handle it) to rotate your monitors. People are claiming this is great. Me, I see it as an accident, that Apple didn't realize the feature was in the drivers, and that 10.4.1 will disable this feature. They've never liked people computing in any way they don't envision."

That is just rich. You sir, are a master troll. Apple wrote those drivers. It is no accident.

UberFu
Fresh-Faced Recruit

Joined: Oct 2002

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05/09, 12:13pm | report spam | close Reply |
what I know.....

Is that the ITMS is a supplement for Apple to Market and sell the iPods_ That's it_ Apple is making somehting like .20 cents on the dollar per music download - which is just a crack hair above cost_ All this is for is to boost sales of iPods_ Period_ Hence the 70% market share of all digital music players - including the crappy thrid party ones for $150_ Peeple are paying the extra cash because the iPod line is a superior product - end of story_ Apple's philosophy [and more likely Steve's] is that we build the hardware - we build the software - so you know that it's going to be compatible and work_ Something to that effect_ This is said at almost every EXPO and Conference that Apple holds_

Haven't read this dude's article and not sure if I've come across his writing in the past - may have - don;t really pay attention much to whom the author is of what I read but CLONE Licensing from Apple is not gonna happen anytime soon_ Otherwise - doesn't he think the iMac's when after they first hit big 6 years ago would have been "licensed"_ But right after - everybody in the world wanted to "be like Mike" and had to sell "flavored" products to get a piece of Apple's tailcoat as it passed them by_

Just the little clip posted on MACNN is way off base for what Apple's tendencies are_ The ITMS most likely won;t go way of HD movies until the majority of broadband is upto something like 20Mbit rates standard_ I;ve got 5Mb and that's even too slow to wait for a full DVD_ I'd rather go pay the 3 bucks at the video store_ 'Cause going there - picking one up - coming home to watch it - then returning it would be faster_

The only thinkg they'll probably do with HD and the h.264 codec is overhaul the Quicktime site to incorporate a 4th or 5th option on the movie titles_

small ver. medium ver. large ver. full screen ver. h.264 ver.

Switching to just software completely goes against Apple's grain_

This dude actually needs to use his brain before he opens the o****** of a mouth on his face_

GORDYmac
Mac Elite

Joined: Dec 1999

0

05/09, 01:11pm | report spam | close Reply |
Well, it is compelling...

...after all, AAC support was the precursor to iTMS. There has to be a business case to support H.264 & the development of QT7. Apple wouldn't put all of that R&D into it just so other companies could benefit from the technology.

The term 'Video' is just too vague. I'm just not sure of what types of media would be sold. Music videos are promotional, i.e., free, so what does that leave? Maybe packaged videos like those you'd get ay any B&M music store? Television? Movies?

I think a market is there. I'd like to see Apple do it.

testudo
Fresh-Faced Recruit

Joined: Aug 2001

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05/09, 01:16pm | report spam | close Reply |
Re: you are an idiot

That is just rich. You sir, are a master troll. Apple wrote those drivers. It is no accident.

Apple gets the driver code from ATI and nVidia, and updates it (you know, so they can disable features the chips support but Apple doesn't want you to have). Do not discount the possibility that Apple's programmers didn't realize the option was enabled in the software, nor discount the possibility that Apple's programmer's may have turned it on, but Apple's management tell them to turn it off (you know, because I doubt it was a programmer who turned off dual-monitor support in the iBook, management has a role in all of this).

Analysts have been predicting Apple should exit the hardware market and go strictly software for years. Yet every year Apple releases something that drops their jaws. Look how many gushing reviews there were for the iMac G5 and Mac OS X Tiger. Apple will not port Mac OS X to Mac clones or open up the iPod until they at least hit 40-50% marketshare.

First off, I would look at the gushing reviews of OS X Tiger, but since that's SOFTWARE, using it in the example is kind of pointless.

Second, the iPod has 50% marketshare. So when can we see clones??? Answer: Never! Why? Because they won't allow clones while its still selling well (because they'd lose sales, which concerns them more then marketshare). And when its no longer selling well, why would anyone want to clone it? So they can scrape by? Not good business either. They also would be really tight on the clones, making sure they didn't do anything to make their products better than Apples (so no FM tuner, no WMA support, no Video, etc). Steve's not going to want to be outshined.

As for the computers, they'll never get 10% marketshare, let alone 40, so there's no concern there. The iMac G5 didn't drop jaws (the G4 did more of that). The G5 has gotten relatively good reviews, although on technical grounds, I would say right now its really a flop (when will we stop hearing about leaking capacitors, replacing midplanes, noisy fans, etc?). But just because you release a computer that drops jaws doesn't mean anything, especially if no one buys them (my point isn't that its not selling, so no flames about what great sales they get on them).

But even Steve Jobs said they should get out of the hardware business and move on (of course, he said this before he came back, so his story has changed, but that's not the point either). And Michael Dell said the same thing (OK, bad example).

RTiMac
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Joined: Jan 2004

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05/09, 01:17pm | report spam | close Reply |
I hope it's true

I for one hope his anaylsis is correct. Since OS X and Windows XP are now virtually the same, I have switched over to XP. I have been praying for Apple to come up with SOMETHING to give me an excuse to keep an Apple product in my house after my FP iMac finally gives out on me.

An Apple based entertainment center may just be the thing!

chas_m
Fresh-Faced Recruit

Joined: Aug 2001

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05/09, 01:26pm | report spam | close Reply |
Cringe-worthy

I have read Cringley before and he's always got interesting notions, only a handful of which ever actually come to pass in quite the way he pictures it.

I can't recall a recent column which gets it QUITE as wrong as this one, but let's just say that he's one of the better tech pundits who's simply having an off day.

Apple will still be making hardware when the pundits who've been saying "they're going to go out of business" are in their graves. Nuff said.

macimmortal
Fresh-Faced Recruit

Joined: Aug 2001

0

05/09, 01:57pm | report spam | close Reply |
Re: testudo

You wrote: "Second, the iPod has 50% marketshare."

Um...if you can't even get your facts straight, I'm not going to read the rest of your rant. :)

Taken from http://news.com.com/Its+all+about+the+iPod/2100-1041_3-5406519.html

"Research company The NPD Group said in a report released Tuesday that various versions of the iPod accounted for 92.1 percent of the market for hard drive-based music players, up from 82.2 percent a year ago. Players from Creative Technology and Digital Networks North America's Rio were a distant second and third, with 3.7 percent and 3.2 percent of the market, respectively."

h***, their recent earnings report claimed the iPod Shuffle now has a greater than 50% market share.

:)

c. haynes
Fresh-Faced Recruit

Joined: Mar 2002

0

05/09, 03:04pm | report spam | close Reply |
After all this time...

Funny, after all this time these "analysts" just don't get it. Do they? I mean Lincoln said , "...you can't fool all the people all the time." MS has had a long run at it. But tell me what happens to a 90+% market share when Longhorn doesn't deliver and the security issues persist? At some point some folks have to bite the bullet and admit that MS represents the absolute biggest hoodwinking this country and a lot of the world has known. They NEVER innovate, only copy. Everything they do is bloated and "overfeatured." Anybody ever read "The Emperor's New Clothes?" What does it take?

I WORK with Mac computers every day, all day, and I'm around a LOT of people who try to work with Windows. They don't ALL have ulcers. But the difference is so obvious in a work day measured in angst units.

Apple deserves a lot of criticism for dropping the marketing and development ball in the late 80's and 90's but they have a loyal base because we have to produce, not play games and spend 40% of our time solving the puzzle of getting Windows to work. Of course IT people don't like Mac. Every increment of increased marketshare puts them out of work.

There is a reflection of an undereducated populace in computing when the intimidation of not actually KNOWING what goes on in a computer forces people to behave like sheep.

If Apple got out of the computer hardware market we would actually have Dell, etc. machines running Windows and that would be it. Now THAT's scary. However dispersions are cast right now there is class in the field and it's not Windows. An awful lot of people really know that.

occupant
Fresh-Faced Recruit

Joined: Oct 2004

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05/09, 04:15pm | report spam | close Reply |
Re: testudo's comments

For the most part I have to agree with you. What I love about Apple has never been their hardware. Sure, the iPod is cool, the designs are aesthetically superior to most of the PCs, their portables stack up well against the competition, but really, come on, how many of you would buy a G5 if it only ran Windows?

Apple writes elegant software (their OS, the iApps, etc.) to sell their hardware. They have never been about selling software, but they should be - they do it better than most. And I suspect that if the margins weren't so crummy they would be.

Gorloth
Registered User

Joined: Nov 2001

0

05/09, 06:52pm | report spam | close Reply |
As I have been telling ..

As I have been telling people...With the advent of H.264 on X.3.9 and X.4 Apple will in the not to distant future begin selling Hi-Definition movies via download. The iTunes store is just that a store front. No Bozo it's not just for your iPod. Just think, youv'e got a Sammy DLP 1280x720. What are you playing scaled up NTSC DVD's Duhh. With a broadband connection you can download an entire HD movie approx 120 minutes = about 8-9 Gig. Now I'm not talking streaming, but downloadable in a couple of hours. And now that every dual G5 has a dual layer DVD burner, you may be able/will be able to burn your H.264 movie to DVD. So Apple will beat Hollywood Hi-Def bluelaser to the punch by being able to download Hi-Def movies in H.264. Yes Apple has the blue laser covered for the future. Who else out there is building the infrastructure to do this?? Didn't you ever wonder why you can play QT clips in iTunes. Now we have H.264 HiDef samplers and they are awsome. Go Apple Go!

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iPod clones, iTunes Video Store coming?

updated 08:35 am EDT, Mon May 9, 2005

iTunes Video Store?

Sheesh

I just don't understand.

Grrr

Just an opinion

Re: i just don't

Re: You're an idiot

video iTunes

No video store soon...

Clones ?

An idiot?

Yeah, you are an idiot

what I know.....

Well, it is compelling...

Re: you are an idiot

I hope it's true

Cringe-worthy

Re: testudo

After all this time...

Re: testudo's comments

As I have been telling ..

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iPod clones, iTunes Video Store coming?

updated 08:35 am EDT, Mon May 9, 2005

iTunes Video Store?

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Sheesh

I just don't understand.

Grrr

Just an opinion

Re: i just don't

Re: You're an idiot

video iTunes

No video store soon...

Clones ?

An idiot?

Yeah, you are an idiot

what I know.....

Well, it is compelling...

Re: you are an idiot

I hope it's true

Cringe-worthy

Re: testudo

After all this time...

Re: testudo's comments

As I have been telling ..

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