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Merrill Lynch expects Apple to grab 4 percent share

updated 01:00 pm EDT, Mon May 2, 2005

Merrill Lynch on Apple

Merrill Lynch said in a report today that it expects Apple to grab over 4 percent of the U.S. computer market share in 2005. "Tiger should help increase Apple's PC share," the investment firm said. Although past Mac OS updates have not boosted Apple's market share, "based on the features of Tiger and the halo effect from iPod, we think Apple's PC outlook is rosier this time." Merrill Lynch expects Mac OS X to run over ten million computers in the U.S this year. According to Gartner, Mac OS will run 2.4% of the worldwide PC installed base in 2005.

Mac mini could boost desktop share

The Mac mini could allow Apple's desktop share to catch up to its notebook share, Merrill Lynch says. Apple has 3.4% of the notebook market but just 1.7% of desktops. "We expect new Mac users will decide on lower cost desktops than notebooks as Apple attempts to convert Windows users. The new desktop weapon is the Mac mini, which provides a new low price point for the Mac line. The Mac mini takes the line to a new price point, which should be attractive to switchers and education." According to Gartner, new users accounted for 0.02% of Apple CPU sales in 1Q/05. "Apple is counting on new users to fuel share gains. We expect Apple's computer hardware share to increase, as the new Mac mini will be available on a greater scale."

Tiger a strong seller

Merrill Lynch estimates first quarter Tiger sales of $84-100 million compared to $60 million for the
previous Panther. "The new Tiger operating system became available Friday evening. There
was a line of 100 Apple addicts at the store we visited."

iMac and eMac upgrades

"We expect iMac and eMac upgrades," the firm said in a report. Shipping times on Apple's website for iMac and eMac have increased from 1-2 days to 5-7 days, "which may presage new systems."

Merrill Lynch reiterated its Buy rating with a price objective of $51 per share. "In a growth sector lacking growth, we think investors will be attracted to Apple."




by MacNN Staff

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Comments

  1. Baritone

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Why stop at 4%??

    4% is nothing to sneeze at - but why stop there? I'd love to see Apple (& the Mac community by extension) beat Merril Lynch's estimate.

  1. dave a

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    .02%!?!?!

    They couldn't mean that new users were really .02% of sales?

    Two people in every 10,000?

    That would be TERRIBLE. It would mean essentially that they were ONLY selling to the current installed base.

  1. Voch

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    The Count...

    (in the voice of The Count from Sesame Street)

    Four wonderful percent! Ah ah ah!

    (sorry...couldn't resist)

  1. trenchcoat77

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Wall Street reacts...

    with a big +$.07 surge in Apple's stock price. Sheesh.

  1. wymer100

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    I don't get it...

    If Apple only sold sold 0.02% of their CPUs to new mac users, how can the marketshare go up so dramatically? Either the number 0.02% can't be right or you can't make heads or tails of marketshare numbers. I guess they simply don't coun't mac users who haven't upgraded in a while. I'm still using a 5.5 year old powermac as our main home computer. Do we still count on the marketshare list? Basically, noone really know what Apple's marketshare really is because we purchase our computers less frequently.

  1. zac4mac

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    market share = current $

    It's not the same thing as installed base. They're talking about NEW machines being sold now. Obviously we lose twice in that scenario - fewer Macs than PCs [u]and[/u] they last longer, so even the "faithful" buy less than their PC counterparts. Same thing happened to Indian motorcycles in the 50's - Harley won 'cause their bikes didn't last as long and so more sales.

  1. beeble

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    3.4 vs 1.7

    If this isn't most conclusive proof yet that there are vast quantities of PC's that are just bought to stop otherwise empty desks floating away. When companies buy laptops, they are almost always used. When companies buy mac desktops they are always used, all the time. When companies buy pc desktops, well we've all seen pc's in dozens of offices around the world that haven't been turned on in months. Why buy them if they're not going to be used? To make sure the budget is all used up so that it doesn't get reduced for next year.

    Apple's marketshare numbers have been plagued with this and the fact that Mac's last longer as useable computers and require replacement less often. Since the number that is of most concern to the it support and software industry is "Installed Base" and everyone concedes (except perhaps Enderle) that Apple's installed base is several times larger than it's marketshare numbers imply, why is no real study given to it?

    We've all seen vague numbers of 10-15% of actively used personal computers being Macs, but I've never seen anything that lends credibility to this other than my own common sense telling me that these numbers could be accurate. They could be higher. They could be lower. But since this number is so important to such a large part of the it industry, why is no one doing research on it? If researchers can determine the mood of frogs near airports and other miraculous uses of tax money, surely they can figure this one out.

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