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Analysts: Apple may be forced to offer subscription

updated 09:00 am EST, Mon March 7, 2005

iTunes subscription

Online subscription services from Napster and others are beginning to put , reports Reuters. "The only reason they have iTunes is to sell iPods. If it turns out subscription services are important to sell iPods, they'll probably get into that business," said Jupiter Research analyst David Card. Card expects by 2009 that subscriptions will outpace downloads, generating $890 million in revenues versus $800 million for download sales. "We think many millions of people will be buying 5 to 15 downloads per year versus fewer, a few million, who will spend 10 to 15 dollars a month for subscriptions." Shares of Apple fell 5 percent or $2.33 a share after Napster raised its current quarter revenue forecast to $15 million from $14 million. Napster said demand for players compatible with its service from iRiver, Creative, and Dell was strong.

by MacNN Staff



  1. macimmortal

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Give me a freakin break:

    Let's look at these numbers:
    A $1,000,000 increase for the current three month period EQUALS ROUGHLY:


    How many NEW iPod's are sold in 3 months? 4.5 MILLION!!!! That's 4.5 MILLION potential "subcribers" to the iTunes music service.

    Now tell me again how in holy h*ll Napster's numbers are even going to make a TINY dent in Apple's business model?

  1. slider

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Time will tell

    We'll see how these model works out in the long run. Once people start to realize that the music suddenly disappears from their MP3 players, their eyes will begin to open. Personally I would prefer to own what I buy, but that's me. If it turns out that subscriptions are a big part of the digital music pie, then I don't see it as a problem for Apple to offer it. As far as the stocks go, these aren't really good indicators anyways.

  1. NetworkShadow

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Analysts annoy me.

    Analysts annoy me... I hate subscriptions, don't we have enough bills as it is? I find it hard to believe Apple would change the iTMS strategy like that now that iTMS is so well established with it's current model.

    I think this guy doesn't know enough about Apple, or he ran out of other things to talk bs about.

  1. csimmons

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Let me get this straight.

    Napster makes in a quarter what Apple makes in a week, and some analysts are worried about Apple's future?

    Give me a break.

    Needless to say, I bought some more Apple stock this morning. ;-))

  1. ticedric

    Joined: Dec 1969


    renting music?

    How in the world can someone project anything in 2009? 4 years in the tech world is light years then technology will change the way we store music one again...until then apple has plenty of time to intergrate the Ipod into more, home audio, video, make it even more popular...

    And after a few million people crack the security on the subscription songs and get 10,000 for 15$....the entire music industry will stear clear of this model.

  1. beeble

    Joined: Dec 1969


    What the ....

    Look at Apple's accelerating sales. They will probably hit 500mil sales this year (almost $500mil). That's more than half of the 2009 prediction for the entire online purchase industry. Napster's sales are growing, but no where near the rate or Apple's. For every step forward Napster are taking, Apple is moving another mile ahead.

    Only people who purchase copious quantities of music will want $15 a month. The overwhelming majority of people don't spend anywhere near that a month on music so Apple will always have more users, and because they will have iPod's and Napster doesn't support iPods, they will always be customers of Apple's store, not some other online purchase service.

    By not opening up the iPod, Apple have ensured that they can't be copied. Anyone can copy Napster because anyone can use the same players they use. No one can copy Apple.

    Business Rule 478: Competition is great thing between two other people.

  1. velocitychannel

    Joined: Dec 1969



    MS is pushing for the subscription model, and we all know who has major influence over these "analysts". The subscription model is good for business, but bad for the consumer. Given time, more and more consumers will see past the false advertising of these services and realize this is not what they want.

    In the long run, buying music is good for the consumer and good for the recording industry. Like ticedric said, "And after a few million people crack the security on the subscription songs and get 10,000 for 15$....the entire music industry will stear clear of this model." I couldn't agree more.

  1. horvatic

    Joined: Dec 1969


    I don't want to rent!

    What is the big deal with this renting garbage? I don't want to rent my music. Why are these analysts getting all excited about nothing. Apple made in a week what Napster says is a big quarterly jump. Big fricken deal! I want to own my music and if you look at the numbers by renting for $15 dollars a month after a while your paying a whole lot more for your music then if you just bought it out right. Not to mention you pay every month for the music that you already got from them. And if you stop guess what. All your music goes AWAY! How many in this forum want to rent there music and keep paying forever for it?

  1. eldarkus

    Joined: Dec 1969



    Analysts are fortune tellers. They are nothing more than walking 8 Balls.. shake em up, turn em over and they spew some data that is, by nature, 100% unpredictable.

  1. boomer0127

    Joined: Dec 1969


    This story from...

    ... the same person who wrote the story "Users Bypass Napster Copy Protection" here:,,3901-4118410,00.html

    Hey Lady, do you read what you write?

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