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AAPL Stock: 560.88 ( -4.44 )

BW on AAPL: may be too late to take a bite

updated 09:45 am EST, Fri February 4, 2005

BW on Apple stock at 77


BusinessWeek columnist Robert Barker considers the future of Apple's stock following massive growth in recent months. The article suggests it "may be " of AAPL. "Lately hitting a new high above 77, stock in Apple is not just high-priced -- 37 times this year's estimated profit -- but high-fashion. Which got me wondering: Besides a reflected glow as part-owner of today's most glamorous gadgeteer, what does 77 a share get an Apple buyer? ... It's worth recalling what happened to eBay, another great company whose shares went in weeks from 118 to 80 on hints of slower growth."


by MacNN Staff

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  1. cmoney

    Mac Enthusiast

    Joined: Sep 2000

    0
    02/04, 09:58am | report spam | Reply |

    I'm in at 17

    If I sell it all, my taxes for 2005 are shot!

  1. zac4mac

    Mac Elite

    Joined: Oct 1999

    0
    02/04, 10:22am | report spam | Reply |

    I hear that..

    I've got 700 shares, picked up at 15 and change. Gotta love the ride tho. Let's see some higher earnings soon to drop that damn P/E. Come on Apple - ship, ship ship.
    Zack

  1. Squirrel_Monkey

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: May 2004

    0
    02/04, 10:24am | report spam | Reply |

    Re: I'm in at 17

    I doubt very much the stock will plummet to anything close to 17; however, the price will eventually have to correct itself. It'll probably shed 10% to 20% over the next few months, depending what new products Apple might offer midyear. Getting Tiger out and stable will help keep the price from falling too much.

  1. beeble

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Mar 2004

    0
    02/04, 10:36am | report spam | Reply |

    What if?

    What if the numbers for the Mac Mini show that it's selling really well with cannibalizing other product lines? This would suggest an increased market share. That could send the price a lot higher.

    What if Apple released the long awaited set top box? It could integrate with your TV, iTunes, iPhoto etc. That would attract a lot of attention and would bring even more people to the platform now that the entry cost is so low.

    Apple could be on the verge of slight market share gains or it could be on the verge of a large jump. They've got all the products to produce such a jump in todays market place. Only time will tell but APPL does have room to go up even further so I wouldn't be selling yet.

  1. jimothy

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Sep 2000

    0
    02/04, 10:38am | report spam | Reply |

    re: I'm in at 17

    It's better to have to pay taxes on your gains than to have no gains at all. Since you've had the stock for more than a year, you'll pay a paltry 15% capital gains.

    My advice (for what little its worth) is sell when you think it's time, which I feel it probably is at these high levels. If it's going to leave you with a large tax bill, either set aside 15% of the profits so you'll be able to pay the tax bill this time next year; pay estimated taxes now; apply part or all of your refund from 2004 to your 2005 taxes (assuming you have a 2004 refund; if you've already filed, you can file a 1040X); or, better yet, increase your withholdings from your job (decrease your allowances) to cover the capital gains.

    What would make you feel worse, having to pay 15% on real profits, or seeing your profits vanish because you've waited for AAPL to fall by 10, 20, or 30%? Avoiding capital gains is not a valid reason to forgo taking a profit.

  1. cmoney

    Mac Enthusiast

    Joined: Sep 2000

    0
    02/04, 10:43am | report spam | Reply |

    :)

    yeah mostly meant that as a joke. i feel like taking some off the top now, but the greed is setting in. i saw some analysts set a price target of 100 and now i wanna wait till that happens!

    i do feel sorry for my friend who i advised not to buy at 40 because it felt a little rich at the time. (and apple just announced they would be late in introducing the imac g5 and didn't have any more imac g4s to sell.) oops!

  1. paulc

    Junior Member

    Joined: Aug 2000

    0
    02/04, 10:48am | report spam | Reply |

    Share...

    The mini notwithstanding, the ONLY way to get any significant jump in marketshare is to sell into the corps. And they've had the perfect machine for that market... the eMac, for several years. But they made zero effort to court that market.

    The mini is the wrong machine for that market... IT departments FAR prefer a one box solution than to mix and match components.

    Ya gotta realize that the stock price is all about the Pod and iTMS. They could completely drop computers in general and it probably wouldn't have that much downward affect on the share price (however, even if things go great for the rest of the year, there has to be some correction along the way, the stock is overpriced right now).

    To the guy sitting on 700 shares bought at 15... sell and take your profits.

  1. jimothy

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Sep 2000

    0
    02/04, 11:29am | report spam | Reply |

    re: Share

    Surely, Apple has an uphill battle in selling to corporations, but I think the mini is perfect for corporate buyers; the challenge is convincing the buyers of that. I have yet to see any significant numbers of all-in-ones, of any make, in any corporate environment that I have worked in or consulted. I don't think IT does want all-in-ones, but a new computer to which they could attach old peripherals might be right up their alley.

    For those with AAPL shares: First, I'm jealous, I regrettably unloaded my shares (which were not significant) at around $20, making a respectible, but far from remarkable, 25% profit (it freed up a little cash towards a down payment on a house, but I could have furnished it had I held and sold now!)

    If I had any shares now, I'd definitely sell at some of them to take some profit. You're sitting on a significant chunk of change and you'd hate to see it evaporate should Apple fall even slightly short of Wall Street expectations.

    Sell a few, hold a few: You'll reduce your risk, enjoy some profits, and still have the opportunity for additional profit should AAPL have additional upside left in it. But I wouldn't expect returns like the stock had in 2004, or like we've seen so far this year.

  1. ff11

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Apr 2004

    0
    02/04, 11:48am | report spam | Reply |

    What you get

    For your $77 shares, is stock in one of the few companies that has been performing consistently better than expected for the last couple of years.

    Of course risks are part of the bargain with any stock, but I bet all the people who sold their AAPL stock at $30, thinking it wouldn't get any higher are kicking themselves today.

  1. denim

    Mac Elite

    Joined: Jun 2000

    0
    02/04, 02:05pm | report spam | Reply |

    Re: What you get

    Yeah, no kidding. AAPL was the first stock I ever bought, back in April 2003. I got it at $13.44... and sold it a few months ago at $44.97. Feh.

    Not bad, but...

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