Sure, iPod sales will level off. But to say that Apple "relies" on iPod sales is just silly. Apple takes what it can get as far as profit, revenue, and success. They continually innovate to stay alive.

A better question is "What device will be as successful as the iPod" and will it come from Apple?

Sales will level off. They will not disappear. Because the iPod is a cool luxury device, some people will always want to replace their iPod with the latest model. iPods wear out, people gain income, kids are born, features change, style changes, prices drop-- There are plenty of drivers for iPod sales even after market saturation.

Imagine having a car stereo with USB port. Just plug this thing into the USB port and it will play from there.

I just don't like the 20GB's bulk. With the shuffle, it could be as essential as turning the ignition--just insert and turn (shuffle and volume, that is).

You need an iPod killer that's an iPod killer, and not just to geeks. These already exist. To be an iPod killer you need to be as COOL and as EASY to use as the iPod. This is for the now (at least for the next year...)

Population of USA + Canada: 325 million
Population of EU: 456 million
Japan: 127 million
Australia + NZ: 24 million

So, even without resorting to including Brazil, China, India or Russia, the major marketplaces for Apple have a combined population of nearly 1 billion people.

Apple has sold - in total - 10 million iPods, or way less than 2% penetration of the total marketplace.

Even if you said that one-third of that population was barred on age grounds, you'd have a population of around 665 million - still way less than 2% penetration.

Personally, I wouldn't even start to get worried until Apple had around 65 million units sold - which is around two years away even if Apple were unbelievably aggressive and more likely three to four years away. But, by then, the BRIC nations will be onstream as potential major markets - markets which Walkman (which reached sales of 350 million units) didn't even have available to exploit.

China (PRC) alone has a population of 1.3 billion, of which 70% (910 million) is between the ages of 15 and 64. That's at least another 45 million iPods that could be sold assuming that the industrialisation of the PRC continues unabated which is almost a given.

If Apple plays its cards right (hardly a foregone conclusion, but let's hope for more wins than losses), it could be riding the iPod wave for the remainder of this decade, meaning 20 quarters of relatively high income earned either directly or through the relationship with HP.

120 million iPods sold over the next five years will guarantee Apple's future for at least another fifteen years, and Mac mini and iTMS will merely build on that guarantee.

"But let's say Apple has a good year and sells a million units of the iPod shuffle"

That would not be a GOOD year.
Try a million units a Month!

"because music is just not that popular"

Kids love music. 10 years olds love music. Teens love music. Adults love music. The elderly love music.

Audio CDs sell constantly. MP3/AAC players sell constantly. Minidisc players sell constantly. CD players sell constantly. There are more and more radio stations pumping out the tunes. Private satelites are now broadcasting music. There are multiple music video channels per country (like USA and Canada). Sports venues feature music, even if it's just an organist in a hockey arena.

Were you being sarcastic? :) Music permeates the very air humanity breathes. And since sound is just particles/waves in motion, one can say that the whole universe is music, as it vibrates, waves and moves as well to its own rhythm.

Looks like it's already happening. Wonder if Apple intentionally made the Mac Mini small enough to replace car stereos...

Company is already offering the service, I'm sure MORE will follow:

http://www.engadget.com/entry/1234000367027429/

The windows platform loses steam and Microshaft get a blow in the nose. Taking into account that more of their revenue comes from Windows sales this could be a blow in the nose. Blah Blah Blah....

Morale of the story: dont ever try to win, because you may lose later. Oh well... people and their blah blah comments. Havent you got time for better things Mr. Arik Hesseldahl??? Oh! and dont let your dxck go high because it will have to come down ;-)

>>>Looks like it's already happening. Wonder if Apple intentionally made the Mac Mini small enough to replace car stereos...

I keep asking..."What is the voltage pinouts of the new Mac Mini power adapter plug?

Can someone email me ...: editor@automorrow.com

Also, it is too bad that there is no CD / DVD eject button on the front , as well as the power button...

...Is there a hack .. can you boot up or eject the cd from the USB port?

also... how can one have two montiors ( one low resolution and one full scale )

Is ther a limit to size of a dashboard wiget?

Can lock wigets to a area of the dashboard? ( disable click and drag movement )

Idea: Have a touch screen mini monitor ( VGA? ) with giant wigets for the small screen and full video DVI out the other...

Any takers?

The columist obviously does not know what this is all about.

First of all, taking up the US market alone seems like an unfair pick, because there are countries like China and Japan (where MD and flash memory players seem to have huge demands) who are going to be joining other iPod users in the next several years. Globally, there are 300+ million people on this planet or something? And Apple only sold 10 million iPods? And even within the 10 million, there are a lot of users who own more than 1 iPod? Do the math and you'll figure out it will take a while before the market really saturates.

Even after the market saturates and the sales of the iPod is going to slow down we will be talking about a huge customer base. A lot of average users are already into their second or even third iPods at this point. Obviously, the life cycle of iPod isn't decades. People are coming back wanting more iPods and newer models.

The iPod is part of a larger strategy in the format war with MSFT. Apple's goal is to push AAC and the MP4 standard in order to sell more macs and mac software to content creators and distributors.

Of course the iPod will not be top of the heap forever.

Couldn't think of anything worth writing about that day. All of these columnist who seems to come up with what is wrong with this and that. I guess that is why they are columnist and not actually in the trenches producing products, they're not the experts.

Apple could become ... a beleagured company!

So this forbes dumbnut is saying that the market is "untaped" and Apple will make a huge amount of profit in the next 2 years or so...and whats bad about this? Imagine car manufacturers putting the Ipod as an option on their cars...

I'd say forbes magazine is in deeper waters. In a few years everybody will get their news off the net. not on paper...

The analysis is of course correct. We are not there yet and Apple is most likely working hard trying to come up with next moves to stay ahead. The first years it was hard drive size. But now most people don't need more than 60 GB for compressed music alone. We can expect to see more functions that will make us realize why the iPod series is better than the competitors.

Even worse! They'll have to then rely solely on computer hardware and software for profit! There's no way a company that's been in the music business for as long as Apple has been to survive just selling computer equipment.

I just heeded this guys warning. I sold all my Apple stock! I was going to buy MS, but the comment about Windows sales declining scared me too. Then I was thinking of Pepsi, but what if people decided to stop intaking junk food. Damn! Then I was just going to turn it into gold. But same problem. What if tomorrow people decide that gold (or any so-called 'precious' medal, or even and so-called 'precious' gems, like diamonds) are no longer 'precious' and the price plummets.

s**** it, I'm burying my money in my back yard (three steps from the right corner of the deck, two to the right, 2.5 feet down).

I'm getting sick and tired of the MacNN hit parade. The only articles posted are articles intended to gain a ton of comments as furious mac owners pound out the rebuttals.

I refuse to get sucked in any more. From now on, if it's an obvious Mac-hating article, I'm not going to bother reading it. Sorry MacNN. One less lacky to give you your hit requirement.

Seriously, what is the deal with these flmaebait articles?

You don't think within Apple they have discussed the same issues and the reliance on iPod? So when Apple talks about it within the company, it is strategic analysis, or when Apple fan talks about it, it is fun (or secret-leaking), but when a journalist talks about he's biased.

Quit whining people. If you think they suck, be a journalist and write soomething better that people will pay to read. If you think they are biased, the next time they write something negative about Intel/AMD/Dell/Microsoft/etc I better hear you pipe up too. Otherwise, believe it or not, you are the ones who're biased.

There is no reliance on iPod the article is c***. But more important,
I am biased, I made a thoughtful and clear decision about what computer platform I support, and support it I do. I made judgements about the other offerings and the people who make them too. Many of whom, in my opinion, have made computing unecessarily difficult and expensive. They are in the game for the money first, utility second and their lackluster products will not stand the test of time. Computing as a part of everyday life hasn't hit puberty yet and the more we rely on them the more they MUST perform as well as we possibly can make them and be engineered that way as well. I do not see this drive for quality or integrity at the top of the biggest competitor's list, M$ or Dell or any PC makers as they all suck off the M$ teat. Intel is having real problems with its products and AMD is too but is still beating them at what, supplying chips for M$ software? Most Unix shops choose Sun or IBM Power family chips and both of those companies are looking to be more than they have been so good for them. But I'm a Mac guy and so are most of these readers. These folks as with any group of people who have similar interests, like to get together and cheerlead their causes when they see something that can only have one effect, reinforce someone's ignorant perception that Apple and Macintosh are somehow less than advertised. Then they respond. I don't read many of these negative articles and flame the pubs but its a good thing to do, spread the word and call out the louts! But let me tell you one thing this IS the place to whine about them and work to promote and support the intelligent decisions we feel we have made and hope more people do in the future too! I don't agree with a lot of stuff said here but I understand why its here. There was good market analysis regarding the global numbers that I thought was tremendous, way to go whoever that was!! So if you don't want to see irrational pro Mac rants then resist the temptation to click on the comments link at the bottom of the story

These posts are fun. We see a very short sighted article, we rip it to shreds. There's no backlash.

I've been with Apple sense back when they were showing poorly-produced Infomertials to market computers no one wanted to buy. We've seen this company go from "near bankruptcy", to "beleaugred", and now, "market leader". We deserve as people who have heralded the Mac, to enjoy the success by proving the naysayers wrong.

And to those who are newer, maybe came in with the intro of the iMac, or iBook, welcome to you too. You made the celebration great.

And to those who are just looking, welcome aboard. You'll find a lot nice, grab a Cold One and enjoy the party, maybe pull up a chair and ask questions, and if we can, we'll get you in to the swing full time.

Stop the hate'n peeps - celebrate that we've come this far, and have far to go, but we'll do it our way.

That is is the place to champion your cause, share the love you have for Apple, kiss each other's asses (or Steve's), etc. That's all good and this is what this forum's about.

However, start to call people who do not worship Apple or who will not bow down before Steve biased, short-sighted, Peecee fanboys, and other brainless remarks etc - well you then deserve the label of 'zealots'.

You can't have it both ways.