AAPL Stock: 118.27 ( -0.04 )

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Analysts mixed on AAPL, volatility in near-future?

updated 04:45 pm EST, Mon January 3, 2005

AAPL volatility?

Despite Apple stock's strong performance in 2004, Wall Street analysts still have a , according CNN/Money: "According to Thomson/First Call, eleven analysts have Apple rated a 'buy' or 'strong buy' while 12 have it rated a 'hold.' Shares are trading at nearly 44 times fiscal 2005 earnings estimates of $1.49 so they are not cheap. Then again, earnings are expected to more than double this year and grow at an average rate of 20 percent annually for the next few years. And the company does have nearly $14 a share in cash on its balance sheet. If you subtract that, the company's underlying business is trading at about 33 times estimates. That's still pricey but it's more in line with the P/E ratios of hardware companies Dell and Gateway....So if you're a long-term investor, it's hard to find any worms in the Apple story. But investors should realize that the stock could be volatile in the near-term. Expectations for hot new products coming out of Macworld and strong earnings are so high that the slightest disappointment could trigger a violent sell off."

by MacNN Staff




  1. Deal

    Joined: Dec 1969



    These analyst are scared because they are looking at AAPL history. Every SF Macworld the stock climbs up until Keynote day and then it slides down.

    I don't think this year will be the same. If Steve has one cool item up his sleeve (over and above Astroid), AAPLE is looking to take-off again.

    One Man's opinion...

  1. Talleyman

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Rumor sites CAN hurt APPL

    This is why Apple is suing over the leaked product info...If a rumor spreads and everyone gets fired up...and it turns out to be a total falsification, as has happened numerous time in the past, APPL stands to lose value! In a capitalistic society, THAT'S BAD!!! Stop whining about Apple suing rumor sites and leakers. They are protecting their stock holders from loss...that's their job!

  1. jimothy

    Joined: Dec 1969


    re: History

    I think it's going to be a lot worse than previous years. When Steve fails to announce the iPod flash (which is a stupid idea dreamed up by rumor sites and embraced, absurdly, by analysts), the stock will plummet. Not because the iPod flash was a necessary or even good idea, but because the analysts have convinced investors that it not only good and necessary, but, darn it, the thing is almost here!

    With all of this "good news" priced into the stock already, a single piece of even mildly disappointing news will send the stock sharply lower, as the Money article states.

    I'm upset that I sold AAPL when it was just below $20; I could have made huge profits (percentage wise; I didn't own that many shares). When it sinks below $50, I may buy some more as a long-term investment, but the opportunity to reap the type of short-term gains I could have seen had I held are gone. I'd expect more along the lines of 10-15% annual growth, which still ain't bad at all.

  1. osiris

    Joined: Dec 1969


    re: History

    You nailed it right on the head(less).

  1. cebritt

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Old Wall Street Adage

    Buy on rumor, sell on news. However, if Apple announces a $500 Mac, I think the stock will move into the 70s.

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