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Analyst predicts nearly 24M iPod unit sales in 2006

updated 11:10 am EST, Wed November 24, 2004

iPod sales could hit 23.5M

One Wall Street analyst expects 100 million Windows users to own iPods by 2008 and is forecasting iPod sales of , according to a report obtained by Macworld UK. The analyst says that the rumored flash-based iPod, expected early next year, may "an opportunistic move to quickly capture an even higher share of the portable music player market," noting that Apple has already established the iPod as the "leading brand" in the portable music player market. In a 27-page research note issued to clients, Needham & Co. analyst Charles Wolf claims the iPod will achieve 'critical mass' that could lead to a surge in Mac sales if only a nominal fraction of iPod users make a Mac purchase and also calls Apple's online and brick-&-mortar retail stores as "the unsung heroes of the Apple story." He further predicts that by 2010, iTunes Music Store market share will have fallen to just 2 per cent, but equates this figure to sales worth $800 million per year by then.

by MacNN Staff





  1. pliny

    Joined: Dec 1969



    can't hurt, and maybe we'll see Mac sales top 2m.

  1. Faizon318

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Yeah Full of hot air

    I dont trust these guys when they say bad things about apple or good .. they are pumping and dumping as far as I can tell . I dont know any PC people who are going to buy a mac because of there ipod .

    Yes .. im sure they will sell more macs because of the ipod .. but not enough to make the stock worth 100 bucks like they say ..

    I say apples only way of making money off the Ipod is to get in the consumer market buisness and make PDA,TVR, Cell Phones .. stuff like that .. people are willing to pay 400 bucks for an ipod .. but not 3k for a G5 when u can spend half that on a alien ware kick a** PC..

    most people dont use photoshop and illustrator at home .

    Im a mac lover by the way .. but see the big picture

  1. jimothy

    Joined: Dec 1969


    2 percent

    The 2% figure in the article is a little misleading. $800 million would be 2% of TOTAL projected music sales (CDs, etc., included) rather than just legal downloads. (Last year, total world wide music sales were $32 billion; $800 million would be 2.5% of that figure. Source: I haven't seen the research note, but I suspect it correctly states these market share figures, and that the Macworld article misinterpreted the analyst's report.

    2% of the total market share would actually be an increase for Apple, who now holds well less than 1% (with somewhere around $100-$200 million in sales). And when you put it in that perspective, you can see what an incredible opportunity music is for Apple.

  1. mbryda

    Joined: Dec 1969



    "but not 3k for a G5 when u can spend half that on a alien ware kick a** PC.. "

    Please - A good Alienware PC is more like 2-4k+, depending on what you want.....

  1. madgunde

    Joined: Dec 1969


    RE: Yeah Full of hot air

    Faizon318: last time I checked, PowerMac G5s started at under $1500US and TOP OUT at under $3000US. Not to mention that MOST iPod switchers will most likely go for an iBook ($999-$1499), iMac G5 ($1299-$1899) or PowerBook ($1599-$2799).

    I would have to say the average iPod owner is not in the market for a P.O.S. Alienware gaming PC.

    You are the one full of hot air. I bet you are one of the ones that said no one would pay $249 for an iPod mini too.

  1. Ashami

    Joined: Dec 1969


    iPod killing the FUD

    Faizon318, I hate to tell you this (actually, I enjoy telling you this), but G5 iMacs start at $1300, more than half of your mysterious "3k". Sure, you can get a PC that's souped up for gaming...but then all you have is an expensive gaming machine. If you're going to do that, get an XBox or something. However, with the Mac, you get a reasonable gaming machine, plus everything else the Mac offers (which the PCs can't touch, like OSX, ease of use, real security, etc. etc. etc.).

    The FUD you are touting here is exactly what the iPod is going to erode. The more the people see that Apple=Quality+Cool, the more the myths will fade.

  1. Deal

    Joined: Dec 1969



    Where does this guy get his math? iPod dominate the market and will continue to do so, iPods link to iTunes which links to the ITMS. How is that going to equate to 2%?

    He's nuts. It will remain high as long as the iPod remains high.

  1. Jonathan-Tanya

    Joined: Dec 1969


    thanks jimothy

    Thanks jimothy....making up 2% of total music sales is a lot easier to stomach than 2% of online music sales.

    As big an apple fan as I am, this rosy scenario is unrealistic....nevertheless, that doesn't mean $100 a share is wrong... I believe Apple will well achieve that with advances in the PowerMac line that have nothing to do with the ipod, such as increased sales to academia, especially higher education, scientific, and graphics markets.... moving into area's that SGI and to a lesser extend HP and Sun served with their graphic workstation products and unix-y type servers. I think oracle will someday release a production version for os x, and you will see apple move into some file sharing/print serving, and general database use at some institutions.

    the ipod will help too, but the ipod magic won't last forever...but however you get to the same conclusion, apple is going to do well the next year.

  1. coolfactor

    Joined: Dec 1969


    mindshare is shifting.

    I deal with many PC users on a daily basis, and I've seen a shift in the mindshare. In fact, my best friend, a longtime Windows-only user just purchased sweet 15" PowerBook 2 days ago, and loves it. Good friends of mine purchased two eMacs a year ago, and two iPods 3 months ago. People are starting to wake up to the alternatives.

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