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Merrill Lynch: two new iPods due by first half of '05

updated 12:45 pm EDT, Mon October 25, 2004

Two new iPod models?


Merrill Lynch says that Apple will likely introduce by the first half of 2005, according to Forbes: "We believe Apple could introduce a flash memory-based iPod in the first quarter of 2005. The new iPod would signal a departure from the thinking that an iPod should hold all a person's songs. We estimate that Apple might be able to charge $149 for a 256MB (60 song) unit. We think Apple could quickly become a significant player in the fragmented $2.6 billion flash MP3 market." Merrill also said a photo iPod may be released in the near future: "Since iPods are already being used as portable hard drives (HDDs) for files, we believe a Photo iPod is likely to be announced, perhaps in the first half of next year." The firm maintained a 'Buy' rating on the company with a target price of $49 based on a 1.6 times enterprise value-to-sales ratio, which it noted was a 20% discount to Dell.


by MacNN Staff

(6)

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  1. John F.

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Sep 2004

    0

    No way!

    No way would Apple sell 256 MB flash based iPods. Steve said with the introduction of the mini that he believes that 4 GB is what it takes to bring your music library with you - now this can be argued, of course. Bringing your music library with you is what the iPod is all about. No way would Apple compromise on this fundamental idea of the iPod. I'm thinking of the possibility of Apple introducing a 4 GB flash based iPod mini with many hours of battery life. Is it viable for Apple to sell 4 GB flash for $249? Can they get the price of those chips down that low to get a profit out of the mini at $249?

  1. JustinD

    Dedicated MacNNer

    Joined: Jan 2001

    0

    Seriously...

    256MB is ridiculous - given Jobs' disdain for flash players in the FIRST place due to their limited storage capacity, WHY on earth would Apple sell something they dislike? I'm betting it'll be at LEAST 1GB with a price point of $150.

  1. testudo

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Aug 2001

    0

    Re: Seriously

    I'm betting it'll be at LEAST 1GB with a price point of $150.

    Hold on there a second, buddy. Remember, before posting pricing guesses, you have to run it through the Apple calculator. It works like this:

    Take the price you expect/think a product is worth,
    now add in $X, where X changes the value to a nice round number, AND marks the price to the point where you'd first say "WTF! Apple, you're nuts. No one's going to buy this for ! Not when, for dollars more, they can get something a lot better!"

    So, for example, take the iPod mini, which it seemed everyone and their mother assumed would cost $199. Add in $50 to take the price to $250, which, of course, no one would spend, when for another $50 more, they can get a full iPod.

    (This also worked for 3G iPods, who'd spend $299 on the low-end, when $399 got you bigger and all the accessories).

    Now, if you're $150 has already performed this calculation, then fine. However, if now, you should update your speculation to at least $200 for a flash-based player from apple.

  1. mgescuro

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Jul 2003

    0

    Sounds good

    Well, with the 20GB starting at $299 and the 4GB Mini starting at $249, an "Ultra Mini" could retail at $199 and store about 1GB in flash memory.

    THe 256MB flash players are about $149 now anyways. $50 more to get 4x the space? That's a pretty decent bargain.

    But let's all not forget the Motorola phones that will be iTUnes compatible.

    Looks like Apple is blanketing the market... and that's a very good thing.

  1. Saint_Stryfe

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Jul 2001

    0

    I donno...

    I work at an Office Depot, and we just started carrying a 160 dollar, 4 gig USB storage device that's about half the size of an iPod... I think they could do it. I don't expect it.

  1. johnny66ch

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Mar 2003

    0

    rent music?

    I was wondering... since Apple's announcement that iTMS will no longer support older versions of iTunes, and knowing that iTunes 4.6 can stream music to a HiFi stereo; will we shortly be seeing the renting of music on iTMS, which could then be streamed to your stereo with Airtunes? You'd need to have the latest version of iTunes to do this.

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