Just like all the other products M$ has copied from other innovative companies their's will be a cheaper shadow of the original. However, should M$'s player really be a hard drive based device - I hope Apple will choose to compete this time around and lower their price on the iPod. The huge existing prevalence of WMA is clearly a force to be considered...

wtf are you talking about? nobody uses wma. everyone uses mp3 format.

who cares about microsmurf and their crappy formats.

they can suck it

WMA is losing badly to AAC right now. And Microsoft can afford to sell $50 HD based players, cause they'll make the money back on licensing the WMA format to online music stores. They are downright FURIOUS that Apple will not make the iPod WMA comaptible.

I don't doubt we'll see $50 HD based players from Microsoft, but....

Using your dominant position in one industry (The PC industry), to attempt to get a dominant position in another industry is CLEAR VIOLATION of thr Sherman Anti-trust act, and should cause all sorts of red flags in the Justice Dept. Not that they'll do anything about it. They tru to market these players in Europe, however, and the EU will be ALL OVER THEM.

h***, the X-Box should have been considered a violoation of the anti-trust laws, but the competitors fought back by slicing prices and undercutting the xBox.

Apple always says the iTMS is there to sell iPods, because they're a hardware company. Microsoft, on the other hand is a SOFTWARE company. Their cheap handhelds will be there to help sell music from the MS Music Store, where MS will consider the real profit comes from. They own WMA, so there's no licensing issues, like there are for AAC.

Either way, the consumer is now SCREWED.

Goodbye choice.

have a blue screen! How original that would be.
;-)

Microsoft can easily afford to price its player and take a tremendous loss in order to slowly build a monopoly. That's essentially what it is doing with Xbox in order to compete with Sony's PS2. Apple is a smaller company and can't with its iPod. At some point, Apple has to make a profit in order to survive and continue developing new products. The last time it tried to compete with other companies with cheap machines was in the early 90's with Michael Spindler as CEO, and that nearly killed Apple.

I'm worried.... 147822 5/27/04, 11:28 am EDT

It's not like the masses have ever cared about cheap Apple knock-offs before. We can talk all day about how Microsoft's player is not as pretty, elegant, functional, etc, but if it costs less and there is a massive advertising push, it has a good chance of hurting iPod's success. PookJP

You hit the nail right on the head PookJP. It doesn't matter if it's an inferior product. If it's cheaper and marketed right, people will buy it. MS has the reserves to lose money on it to make it the standard.

The iPod is flat out the best music device out there but I'm constantly still introducing it to people who aren't too familiar with it. This is a majority of the population and you can bet they will be the target of MS's marketing campaign.

Apple's commercials are still few and vague. Hopefully as a new division of Apple, iPod and iTunes can make some noise for those not already in the know.

Give the MP3 players away to Walmart, and have them sell them for $20. Then you may get an equal marketshare to the DELL DJ.
Cheap in crappy is NOT going to win you this game, this time around.

Just like Windows has the same "look and feel" of Mac OS.

well do we REALLY need to comment on this?...
let them put all their energy in their new OS that will be out in... I dont remember, and then they might be able to do something else. Microsoft... it took them 15 years to make a descent mouse/keeboard set, so, for a "complex" thing such as a Mipod... and regarding the price, 50$ IS realistic! But in 5 years from now! ;)

PS: i forgot that you would have to reboot your player from 3 to 15 times a day, and it will crash on first start of the day and as soon as you add a song! LOL :D

WMA is losing badly to AAC? In what world do you live in?

As an owner of iPod, I think MS' version is going to suck, nevertheless, I welcome the competition and anyone who can make Apple lower iPod's price.

But man, stop the whining!

M$ so far up their a** will eat this up. it always surprises me how little the general public knows. my guess is the vast majority have no idea what this company is like. they see M$ on it, low cost, they're sold. people shop at wal-mart, they're not forced to, they do. obviously they don't give a rat's hiney about business ethics, morals, etc. they see the commericals, they don't see the bad reports.

FUD - One must understand this acronym. It is Fear Uncertainty Doubt.
It is Microsoft's greatest weapon and it has been used repeatedly over the last decade plus. When Microsoft suddenly realises that they have missed the bandwagon, they pull out all the stops to get back into the game.
Microsoft, when confronted with a position of playing catch-up, always pre-announces a product that will be as good as (or better) than what the current dominent player has NOW. MS doesn't have an iPod killer product to sell now. It has not been designed (but they have definitely decided to work on it). It is being announced now because they want to sow the seeds of fear uncertainly and doubt in consumers minds.... "such a great price! I'll wait and buy that.."
By preanouncing a product they s**** with the competitor and the consumer.. and any other potential competitor who might be thinking of jumping in.
MS is terrified by the iPod, iTunes and Apple. The inroads that Apple is making with iPod/iTunes/iTMS with HP and now just announced the Chinese computer maker that will be installing iTunes are the stuff of icebergs. These are the sort of doors that can lead to so many more opportunities.
Microsoft has never really been an innovator but they are one funk of a rich and sleezy marketing "son of an unmarried couple" organisation.

Unless they sell it way below their cost, they cannot sell a HD based player at that low price point. Funny how it is illegal for a foreign company to "dump" product on the market below cost... But not for a US company to take a foreign made product and "dump" it...

Yep, got that right. The announcement of NT 4 was done to keep people from upgrading to Novell 4, even if it took years for NT 4 to come out.

I remember being on a confernece call (in 1998 I believe) where someone actually said "Well, MS's new server OS is going to be out by summer, so we should wait to get that, as its supposed to come with SQL Server (blah blah blah)". He didn't like it too much when I gave him the "yeah right, maybe next summer" as he was using the beta and it was rock solid. Well, guess what, year and half later, windows 2000 server finally released. And I'm pretty sure it did NOT come with SQL server installed.

the other poster was right, there are people who will eat this announcement up! (Of course, when Apple announces something, Apple fans do the exact same thing - but at least its been a while since Apple's said "Our new OS will be coming out in 2003, er, I mean 2004. Strike that. its now 2005, but its because we're now making security "job 1". Ok, now its 2006, but we're serious this time. Even if we have to take out all the cool features to make it by then!".

Apple did this with Copland, and then with Rhapsody/OS X. But even they saw it was important to get something out so people knew they were serious...

slice it. If MS does in fact sell a $50 device that is anywhere within 50% the quality and functionality of the iPod, Apple will have a serious problem.

I hate to defend MS, but they have the power and right to do this. If Apple plans to compete, if in fact this is news is more than FUD, they will have to find a way to lower their prices. Something they have yet to achieve with their Macintosh and never achieved with the Newton or anything else they produced in the past for that matter.

If Apple has a soft spot, this is most definitely it.

If they sell $50 devices that compete in the iPod space they will obviously be selling them at a loss.
Chances are we're looking at an equivalent of the Creative MuVo2, a total t*** of an MP3 player which is currently flying off the shelves because you can extract the PRECIOUS BOUNTY (the Hitachi 4GB Compact Flash Microdrive).
I'm all for $50 Precious Bounty.

That would be great except for some particulars like what type of device will this music player be based on,what kind of economic theory will they be using selling a hardware product way below it's market value and pairing it with a music service that is not very profitable,will this music device be of the same quality as the iPod or iRiver or even a Dell,can it's music service be able to compete with iTunes,Rhapsody,Napster and others and lastly,will it work the first time ?
This announcement is just that,FUD and I'll bet you,whatever that device will be,it won't be 50 dollars.

One thing that comes to mind about this music player is when Microsoft introduced Ultimate TV with the intention on removing Tivo from the map. The result...Tivo is still going strong, Ultimate TV is no where in sight. Tivo is obviously a much smaller company than Apple and survived.

Actually Tivo is in a world of hurt. Most DVR machines out there are not Tivos but people call them Tivos. Yes Tivo made a name for themselves but its not going very far.

Microsoft is afraid of potentially losing a high-profile market segment, so they're jumping in before they even know what they're doing, in typical Microsoft fashion.

The problem with this market ... there were many MP3 players before the iPod. The iPod became so popular because Apple understood what consumers wanted. At this point, "A lower price, More features," doesn't matter. The iPod became the "it" device, because it was the right product at the right time.

The price of the iPod will come down when the cost of its major component and most expensive part, the hard drive, comes down.

This is Microsoft's position... All of the portable music players that use WMA, just plain suck compared to the iPod. So they think if they design a platform and OS for others to license and use, then they could make tons of money. Microsoft could control the hardware design, the operating system and the content of these players without having to invest in producing them.

For what it's worth, the situation you are describing (pre-announcing a product that may not even be in development yet for the purpose of making people avoid buying a competitor's product that is already on the market) is more like vaporware.

As far as I understand it, and given MS's past history, FUD entails more of the kind of stuff that is supposed to make people afraid of buying a competitor's product..... i.e. when Microsoft f'd around with their early Windows betas so they wouldn't run properly on DR-DOS, it was FUD to get people to stick with MS-DOS.

In this case, I think the FUD against the iPod is the stuff like "the battery is going to die in only a year and you're going to have to pay Apple all this money; why don't you buy this Zen Nomad instead?".... almost every time I walk into a Best Buy or CompUSA there are sales guys telling customers who are about to buy an iPod this, and they seem to have a mandate to try and scare people from buying an iPod, even when the customer knows they want it (and even if the stuff they are saying isn't true).

For what it's worth, I don't think these MS MP3 players are vaporware... if they really will have them ready to sell later this year, I would expect them to be fairly far along.....

Also, just to clarify, I do think vaporware announcements can be an effective part of a FUD campaign. The main reason I was posting was more just because what you were describing as "FUD" sounded more like how you would specifically describe vaporware.

And of course, the other kinds of FUD about the iPod are like the situations when Real and Microsoft talk about how iPod owners don't have the wide variety of choices, how they are locked in, etc. These tactics are all designed to create further FUD in the minds of consumers..... they want nothing more than to have consumers say "wow, the iPod looks great, but I don't want something that is closed.... I'd much rather have something that uses Microsoft's stuff".

I dont think M$ will ever beat out Nintendo or PS2 .. I dont care what they give away ..

DeKU, I would disagree with your assessments. TiVO just made their quarterly announcement yesterday, and they are experiencing record growth. (See http://www.thestreet.com/tech/georgemannes/10162227.html.) There are in-computer competitors to TiVO, but they are the only major dedicated DVR system. Still, they don't make a profit yet, so the story isn't over yet.

There are in-computer competitors to TiVO, but they are the only major dedicated DVR system. Still, they don't make a profit yet, so the story isn't over yet.

Actually, the big competitor to Tivo is the cable systems themselves. They're starting to add DVR functionality to their cable boxes (I think the idiots who are comcast say that all their boxes will have DVR capabilities by year end or some such thing). As such, they'll be less incentive to get a separate box (no matter how cool Tivo is, and if you watch any amount of TV, not having a Tivo is just wasting your time).

They have a 10 year plan to loose money on the XBOX as they throw more money at marketing and release of XBOX 2 and 3, etc.

They don't care about making money, so I'm positive they can sell things a lot cheaper than Apple, I mean, they're a real business.

The whole world would be better if Microsoft ran a business, rather than runningn a domination shop.

By the time Microsoft comes out with what they said they were comming out with, Apple will have iPods the size of ear buds with more space than we could ever fill and we'll be zipping around in the new flying segways. Maybe longhorn will even be available???

I've been around, bought a lot of electronics and computers. And one thing remains constant. You get exactly what you pay for.

...is say they are working on a x86 version of OSX that they will sell for 50 cents.

Case in point: A co-worker was seriously consideing getting an iPod about the time Dell came out with their player. He chickened out and got the Dell, mostly because of the price difference. We compared to my iPod and he was shocked at how much better the iPod sounded. Swapping the earbuds we realized it was because of the incredibly poor buds Dell includes. So he went and bought a $40 set of buds that still don't sound quite as good as the iPod's. If he had known that he'd have to spend even more money to get a good set of earbuds he probably would have gotten the iPod.

It's just like Mac vs Windows...nobody considers the Total Cost of Ownership, only the up-front costs. So, MS will sell a $50 flash-based player that will come with no memory card, 50 cent headphones, and no battery. By the time you get all that stuff you will have a $200 player with 1/16th the capacity of a mini and ongoing battery replacement cost.

If MS released a similar capacity MS Pod for $50, then Apple might be forced to lower prices. That would be good for those who are too cheap to buy an iPod (like me), though they are worth every penny now.

But at $50, MS would be taking a serious loss - so say they lose $200 per unit, selling 5,000,000 units would cost MS only $1 Billion. That's pocket change to them. They spend more than that on urinal cakes.

However, I'm not sure what the DOJ would say to MS taking such an obvious loss to gain market share.

I'm sorry but Microsoft hasn't made anything that is easy to use. So as far as I'm concerned there blowing smoke out of there ......
There probably inhaling some of it too. You can't make a good player for nothing.

The only people that are spreading FUD right now are the zealots in here. Whenever MS is mentioned the zealous cry outrage and swears to call in the DOJ. For what? That was such a minor conviction it is inconsequential. But here we have people claimng MS would lose $200 per unit (whatever) - now THAT is FUD.

Another tired argument from "ender" as well. Sound quality is dependent on so many other things. Playing the same material with the same encoding and using the same headphones and listened by the same user - then you can probably get some valid indicator of the sound. Since you are not controlling any of the above variables, you are down to someone saying he likes the color blue better than red so blue is superior.

Morover, the iPod earphone is not excellent in any case. It is better than the 99 cent ones but it is not better than the any other ones included in the HD based players out there.

"If he had known that he'd have to spend even more money to get a good set of earbuds he probably would have gotten the iPod."

You do not know that. In fact, one of the most annoying thing about Mac users is that they think they know what everybody wants (which happends to be what Apple offers). PC users have different needs/reasons for choosing what they choose - somewant a 10 lb desktop replacement that's twice as big as the PB but some want a 0.7" subnote that Apple does not offer. Since not all of you are driving BMWs (can't afford it, don't need it, need something else (pickup), or want some like BMW but different (Audi, Mercedes, VW, etc).

There goes kleenex blowing his snotrockets all over the forums again.

But at least he can continue to earn income from your MCSE a little while longer.

BTW, I can save the rest of you the time and cost you'd expend on the Troubleshooting Modules of the MCSE:

1. Reboot
2. Reboot
3. Reinstall Windows
4. Reboot
5. Send the machine in for service
6. Buy a new one
7. Repeat

"You do not know that. In fact, one of the most annoying thing about Mac users is that they think they know what everybody wants (which happends to be what Apple offers). PC users have different needs/reasons for choosing what they choose ..."

They also want an unstable OS along with security that's akin to covering yourself in $100 bills and strolling through a particularly bad section of town at 10:00 on a Saturday night with their hands tied behind their backs while shouting obscenity-enriched epithets about how they're the badest dude in town.

"Since not all of you are driving BMWs (can't afford it, don't need it, need something else (pickup), or want some like BMW but different (Audi, Mercedes, VW, etc)."

And if the majority of users' knowledge of cars was equal to their knowledge of computers, they'd be buying used Yugos en masse because it was cheap and it moved.

"... - somewant a 10 lb desktop replacement that's twice as big as the PB but some want a 0.7" subnote that Apple does not offer. "

And some want Tablet PCs which are just flying off the shelves too, aren't they? Wait - that's what Microsoft TOLD them they wanted. Nevermind.

If MS released a similar capacity MS Pod for $50, then Apple might be forced to lower prices. That would be good for those who are too cheap to buy an iPod (like me), though they are worth every penny now.

But at $50, MS would be taking a serious loss - so say they lose $200 per unit, selling 5,000,000 units would cost MS only $1 Billion. That's pocket change to them. They spend more than that on urinal cakes.


What is all this c*** going around??? MS did NOT say they were going to make a similar capacity player for $50. And they won't be. What they said was they were going to make a range of iPod like devices as low as $50. A $50 gadget is going to be a small memory based player. It is NOT going to be a hard drive player. A previous poster was right. YOU ALL are the ones spreading the FUD here. You've already got MS stealing the design of the iPod, shipping 40 GB (or even 4GB) HD players for $50, and basically forcing everyone else out of the market due to them eating costs. Yet this is all your own stupid-a** speculation. Why don't you just stop with the c*** until you actually know something!

Oh, and as for the xBox, they may sell it for a small loss, but these guys to make money on the console (the others, Sony and Nintendo) don't make the money on the console, either. They make it on the game sales. That's where the money is. MS has to cut the price low to be competitive, and it doesn't matter if they lose $100 on the player if they can get people to buy 10 games.

Oh, and you all make it sound like MS is the 400 pound gorilla and Sony is this small 3 person company struggling to get by. I mean, these are two (three if you count Nintendo) large companies that can afford taking losses on these things. Stop making it sound like a david vs goliath thing.

if they actually do sell well, to people who would not have spent $250 for an iPod anyway. And the $50 model will NOT have a hard disk, but they will probably have a $150 "upgrade to" model that does have one.

If it's popular, Apple should counter with a tiny Flash-based device in the same price range that leverages the next iTunes to make managing (rotating) the more limited number of songs into an enjoyable and fun exercise. Just plug it into a USB port (and they should use USB instead of FireWire in this case) and let iTunes sync it with a fresh set of songs, based on criteria you pre-select.

There's a lot that Apple can do to counter MS in this case. People should not worry so much when Apple's marketshare is headed in the UPWARD direction. This might even be a good thing, as it will force Apple to be even more innovative with the great trio of iPod, iTunes, and iTMS.

These stories are funny, but it's just the calm before the storm. Will apple stay competitive with the iPod? The reality is, they probably won't. Apple is stubborn as h*** and refuses to lower prices for anything. They are not interested in market share, they are interested in -Design-. While admirable, that habit unfortunately makes it infinitely easy for a competitor to come in and undercut them, whereupon consumers eventually switch to the cheaper, lamer, "windows accepted" product.

Apple will ride high for a while, until the iPod is sufficently copied by a competitor to the standards of "good enough" by Joe Consumer, and then apple will get slaughtered on price. It's the same old apple story.

These stories are funny, but it's just the calm before the storm. Will apple stay competitive with the iPod? The reality is, they probably won't. Apple is stubborn as h*** and refuses to lower prices for anything.

Actually, when it comes to the iPod, since they can barely meet demand now, why in the world would they lower prices?

>Actually, when it comes to the iPod, since they can barely meet demand now, why in the world would they lower prices?

Exactly. Let's talk about lowering prices (to be competitive) when there actually is some competition out there. Let's talk about "opening up" FairPlay and the iPod (to make it easier for others to compete), once Apple's marketshare numbers have reach an equilibrium point, not while it is still climbing. We Apple "groupies" are way too paranoid... history will not repeat because this iPod/iTunes/iTMS success story is nothing like Macintosh and the Mac OS.

doesn't stand. Nobody makes games consoles for profit, whether it's Nintendo, Sony or Microsoft. The gaming industry has always been about selling the games so this wouldn't count. However, I suspect Windows may wish to carry this tactic over to the music market. But suggesting that they would sell HD based mp3 players for 50 bucks is ridicullous, at best they would lose a dollar or 2 per player, but to sell a HD player for fifty quid would mean a 60%+ subsidy, which is absolutely ludicrous.